California Primary Roundtable: Who Makes It to November?

[00:00:16] What's going on everybody thanks for tuning in to another episode of the California Underground we have one week until the primary election that's right primaries we're very excited because we're all political nerds but you should be excited too because there is a lot that we have to discuss there's a lot of races up and down the state that are very important we're gonna try and get to as many as possible tonight I have a full panel with us as long as well as my trusty coast the best fastest researcher in the West I was gonna make a joke about how I feel

[00:00:46] like I'm on that outnumbered show on Fox right now like I didn't realize I was like oh just don't have a coffee take it yeah I'm just gonna get you girls just talk alright see you later everyone bye so let's go around the horn introduce yourselves give yourself a quick intro we'll start with let's say test welcome to the show first time guest California conversation on YouTube tell us one word what do you

[00:01:16] What do you think about this primary season real quick test what county are you representing for us tonight and Susan welcome back to the show so I you know much like test I think it's exciting it's been incredibly exciting we've had you know as you can see I support Spencer Pratt it's no secret it's all over my social media page and he has really brought a level of excitement to people on both sides of the aisle and

[00:02:11] it's it's it's been I think it's been incredibly exciting and joyful to watch people in Los Angeles who have really been sort of in this dark place for the last decade or so to really sort of come alive and I think it's been incredibly to watch incredible to watch all right there's a lot we have to get to tonight but obviously we got to start with the gubernatorial race uh that's probably the one thing that everybody is always talking about everyone always knows about

[00:02:42] where do we go what do you think can you hear me now there we go we can hear you now we can hear you now how thrilling hi jump in yes yeah yeah um

[00:03:10] yeah again what I was saying before sorry guys I had to literally download new new uh OS over here to get to get on this but totally worth it because I love coming on the show with you guys um I'm Kyle Campbell I've got the show politically basic you guys can find me at politically basic or at being Kyle Campbell and Phil and Camila are the best

[00:03:29] and yeah this has just been a really unusual cycle and I love elections so much they're my favorite things ever but I am kind of dragging my lifeless body across the June 2nd finish line at this point it's been it's been a lot yeah it's been it's been more exciting of a primary I think uh in a long time because obviously we don't have an incumbent we don't have to worry about Gavin Newsom running again

[00:03:56] praise the lord right there um but it is kind of concerning because sometimes the devil you know is better than the devil you don't know I guess you could say and what we're gonna get um let me see if I can pull this up real quick because this seems to be changing like every day um when it comes down to the polling and this is what real clear polling has for

[00:04:23] the race thus far so the real clear polling average right now has Steve Hilton which I know is Kyle's pick am I allowed to say that Kyle that's your pick absolutely yeah no I'm officially a senior advisor to the campaign and gonna hopefully be working with him so all in for Steve Hilton and you can absolutely say that okay and we have Becerra right behind 20.6 Bianca has kind of fell off according to real clear politics um which is interesting to see

[00:04:52] as well um Tess I know you just released a video on YouTube on your channel about who you're voting for um do you want to share that with who you're voting for I didn't watch the video I'm sorry it's one I didn't watch by the way everyone should go check out her her channel a fellow California political

[00:05:10] nerd just like us um do you want to share that with everybody it's interesting that that now the

[00:06:15] talking sort of the the strategy has moved a little bit from getting two Republicans through to the general to now rallying around one is that do you think that's because of the surge well it's fun let me give you a little backstory last time we had Susan and Kyle on it was the week like three or four days before the Eric Swalwell scandal imploded like we had a whole roundtable about the gubernatorial

[00:06:44] race and then the whole Eric Swalwell thing exploded and we were joking in our chat like why didn't we have a roundtable this week as opposed to last week and we missed the whole big story um but Sarah now seems to be climbing it's like two dog fight between I think Tom Steyer and Becerra they're kind of duking it out Katie Porter is kind of she's at 9.3 according to real clear she's she's

[00:07:10] like fading fast she's out um do you think that that's because of Eric Swalwell dropping out and that sort of his support consolidated behind a Becerra or Tom Steyer I'll ask Susan because she is our uh representative Democrat on the panel so want to get your input on it um you know as you all know I mean I I'm registered Democrat that's embarrassed about my party um it's

[00:07:38] honestly uh mind-boggling to me that you know um Becerra is is leading the pack now um I can't really think of anyone else in that pack that I think is is stellar um but he comes with a lot of baggage you know verifiable baggage that is really difficult to um as a voter should be difficult to overcome

[00:08:03] um so I you know I I don't know if it's you know I'm sorry what what what was your question again the question was uh because since Eric Swalwell dropped out uh do you think that's his support is Coalaskan behind a Becerra or a Tom Steyer yeah I mean they have I mean it's got to go somewhere right I mean there's a significant part of this constituency in California that's going to vote

[00:08:30] blue no matter who and so when the top one drops out it's going to go to the next one and you know I will say that I think more than ever that I've seen you know even the vote blue no matter who people are starting to branch out and they are supporting Hilton um so you know we'll have to see but absolutely sure as they drop off and that's why Dems were asking you know people who weren't polling well

[00:08:54] to drop out they wanted exactly that to happen they wanted to push up a a viable candidate and you know at the beginning of this they didn't really have one um it's interesting to me uh and you guys feel free to like jump in with any of your thoughts you don't have to wait for me to like go the conversation these are just things that are come on I am doing my best here while I'm also pushing a ton of buttons and I joke about this all the time there's still an opening for a producer at California Underground if somebody wants to be a

[00:09:24] producer behind the scenes um I think it's interesting the two horse race between Becerra and Tom Steyer because you have this old white guy billionaire who's trying to like prove he's like the most cool progressive guy in the race it's so sad yeah and then you have Becerra who's like the the establishment pick I feel like he's like the machine establishment pick like he's the Hillary

[00:09:49] Clinton pick he's the probably secretly Gavin Newsom pick he's like he is now right I mean Tom Steyer's been such a problem for the Democrats from the beginning and when it was Swalwell in and we talked about this like no problem people didn't love him but whatever he's a no name he's just got the the big solid d in bold next to his name and everybody knows what you're gonna get he's easy to work with

[00:10:14] he's easy to control if you will from the party Tom Steyer comes in now that it's down like they had to like scrape the bottom of the barrel and like peek at the underneath the barrel and like try to find Becerra who's terrible um but they had to have somebody get in there somebody they can pull the strings with but Tom Steyer is not going to leave this race now we've got a week until his primary

[00:10:39] so tons of ballots have come in already people have have put them in the mail they're filling in the bubbles it's like what are you going to do at this point and I know Newsom made his break the glass comment the other day and everyone's trying to figure out what could you possibly do because at this point with this weak window left what are they going to do that's going to make a significant change in who people are going to vote for and you guys know this so well this comes down to a numbers

[00:11:06] game and a numbers game only which is why Tess is exactly right you just have to get smart at this point you just have to be strategic and you've got to rally behind the Steve Hilton right the candidate we we like Chad Bianco we love Steve like everything's great but it just comes down to who's splitting more votes at the end of the day and when the Dems cannot get Tom Steyer to step aside thank you God what a gift from heaven for conservatives and anybody who wants to see California get on a better

[00:11:35] track because he's throwing a massive election wrench in in things for Becerra and for Democrats right now and and Katie Porter still too I think the thing about Katie Porter not stepping aside is usually they'll make deals right they'll say like hey Katie we'll find a place for you here we'll do this for you they don't want to put her anywhere they don't want to promise her anything they just want her to kind of skulk away into the shadows and and not to be remembered ever for her

[00:12:01] horrific political leadership but it's fascinating to me and that's why I say this is so unprecedented I'm just blown away that they have not gotten these other candidates to step aside and endorse a Becerra and Biden's not endorsing Newsom's not endorsing this is a real wild one yeah yeah um Porter I just I don't I don't think people resonate with her especially after those videos started

[00:12:28] coming out you know she's running on she's the only uh woman in this race she'd be the first female governor but people are like yeah but you kind of have an anger issue like you we've seen you lash out we saw with that first it started with that one reporter and she didn't look good which we talked about like the optics physically she did not look good the angles were all wrong her clothes were all wrong and I don't I I hate to especially as a woman like I don't want to put down a woman's appearance

[00:12:55] but it just it really was not a good look altogether and then she didn't do herself any favors by you know why do I need the Trump supporters why do I need like it was just it was very like this race is about me it's not about me um wanting to represent everybody it was just like I don't I don't need those people I'm gonna do what I want and I think people really saw that and were just like this this is not for me

[00:13:21] and when it comes to Tom Steyer it's typically the Democrats who are like down with the billionaires you know tax the billionaires billionaires need to go away and Tom Steyer's here I'm a billionaire and um you know I walked away from it all no you didn't you sold it for billions you didn't walk away from it and well yes he has donated a lot of that money um you know and now

[00:13:47] his campaign he's the one raising the majority of his money he doesn't have that many supporters when you look through how many I didn't look up the exact numbers but he doesn't have a lot of individual support and so um that's the Sarah does seem to be like you said he's getting the endorsements he's you know he's so we stepped in and it is kind of weird because it felt like he was not that he has no name but it felt like for a while he was kind of no name in the race and then all of a sudden

[00:14:16] now he's now he's the front runner you know that's actually surprising to me that he is suddenly inched out as being a front runner because I feel like over the last couple of weeks he's had his Katie Porter weeks right he had the reporter that released the uh portion of the video where he was saying you know I'm not going to do this if you're going to ask me got your questions and you know it was very similar in nature to Katie Porter and then we followed that up with

[00:14:45] another reporter really hitting him hard about 85,000 children that were just lost or you know found in sweatshops and in working in slaughter homes or slaughterhouses and he was defensive and not at all you know he actually at one point even said well I think they were doing it because they just needed the money so it's just astonishing to me that even though he's had his Katie Porter week that he's

[00:15:10] still somehow in the lead yeah it's um it's almost like because there's not a strong front runner it's not a big name they're they're kind of stuck with and I think Eric Swalwell was supposed to I mean that's pretty sad that Eric Swalwell was your star candidate like that's how bad the democratic field was is that Eric Swalwell was your star candidate um that Javier Becerra Tom

[00:15:33] Steyer has been able to just annoy all of us with a thousand ads every single second of whether you're watching YouTube or Hulu I just can't take it anymore so hopefully he's out after next week because I can't take his ads anymore um yeah it the the the kind of he feels like that meme that Steve Buscemi meme of like how do you do fellow kids like he's like he's just trying to be cool

[00:16:00] he showed up to debate in and sneakers um but the thing about Javier Becerra and I was looking this up so if anybody wants to jump in I saw a story today about what he said about the high speed rail and I want to get the exact quote is that he said he would change course of how the the high speed rail is being done but when pressed on it he didn't give any specifics and that seems to be something

[00:16:25] about Becerra that he's just not giving any specifics in terms of how he's actually going to do a lot of things um yeah and to Kyle's point yes there's there's going to be people who are vote blue no matter who so there's going to be people who coalesce and they say this is it these are the best we have we have Becerra and Tom Steyer let's just pick one of those and just go for it we can't have two Republicans go through they don't care about policies um so I guess my point is you have

[00:16:51] Democrats who are running on uber progressive policies vague policies and then I guess you have Hilton who's in the lead and I'll hear from Kyle and Tess two people who have supported or are supporting Steve Hilton do you think it's because of the fracturing of the Democratic support that Steve Hilton is in the lead or do you think it's because he's actually out there offering solutions

[00:17:17] that Californians want yeah Tess go ahead I'll let you start off on this one yeah no pretty much um I I

[00:18:53] believe that you know I've worked with a lot of campaigns and a lot of people running for office for almost two decades now and I've I say this so often I've never seen a candidate like Steve Hilton and I think the reason that he's garnering so much support it has to do with a lot of factors one the culture of voters in the state of California right now like people are just so fed up we've come to the end of ourselves with this Democrat leadership that just lights us on fire and then says everything's

[00:19:20] fine um and and everything's you know actually going really well fourth largest economy in the world like stop it's actually going off of a cliff um sometimes you have to have something hit the wall so hard where people do finally wake up now we're still seeing those entrenched voters right like the ones in LA or the ones even in the Palisades that are still digging heels in and saying I'm not going to vote for Spencer Pratt because I just can't bring myself to vote for someone like that someone

[00:19:49] unserious so you're always going to have those really stubborn voters but Steve Hilton has has campaigned like nothing I've ever seen before he is meeting with everyone taking every media interview possible and and talking to people who are boots on the ground in these industries farmers people in oil and gas people in small businesses parents educators union workers I mean you just name

[00:20:16] it and he's he's not only talking to them but he's listening to what they're saying and writing these really detailed policies out of them I'm just I'm I'm so impressed with how he's operating here um and so I think that set him apart and people recognize oh my gosh this guy actually gets it and he has a plan to fix it and and you just sometimes you need to get to that point where people are actually going to accept that information I do think to all of the accusations of like oh he's not

[00:20:43] really an American he's not a real citizen he's a democrat like he's a Trojan horse democrat I actually think that's benefiting him because it's opening a door for people who have traditionally voted democrat right Susan like people who or maybe they've moved to the middle maybe they're independent and they're unsure to just be like okay I don't really know where this guy's coming from and maybe that doesn't matter and we can set that aside for a second and just see do I think he's gonna

[00:21:09] pull us out of this pit and sort of get things sorted out um does he have the political and the diplomatic chops to get in there and work with a a an insane really I mean off the rails democrat supermajority in our legislature and and do this work and I think people trust that he can get it done um and and more so than a Chad who's very very good in in a law enforcement arena but when

[00:21:38] it comes to getting into Sacramento and really going toe-to-toe and negotiating and fighting I I think they trust that Steve is the person to do that um as I've gotten to know him so well over this last year I I really trust and believe um that that he can absolutely handle it and day one he's gonna just go in there and just absolutely you know tip over the apple cart so um yeah I think that he's just

[00:22:03] really resonating with with people of a lot of different political ideologies so it's it's fun to see because at the end of the day right don't we all just want to unite as Californians as people who live here and work here and raise our families here and are upset at what's been happening like we want that galvanizing person um and I think that he's been that for us you know what's interesting to me about Hilton is that he was endorsed by Trump but I haven't seen Hilton use that anywhere um he does

[00:22:32] not align himself as MAGA he's aligned himself as I want to save California I want to you know I want to rescue I want to see California improve and um so I I think initially people kind of you see an R next to someone's name and you do immediately go oh Trump MAGA and in a blue state like California that can obviously be really bad but he hasn't used that and he he is a little more moderate and he hasn't

[00:22:59] gone into any issues that which is this is great but he hasn't gone into any issues that as governor he can't change you know people love to get up there and I'm pro-life I'm pro-choice I'm anti-gay marriage I'm pro-gay marriage I like that's kind of like they they run on those kind of things and in California those things just don't matter uh you know um gay marriage is legal in the United States

[00:23:26] uh abortion is codified into our state constitution and that cannot be changed unless someone gets a prop going like you know and gets it on the ballot and then uh California is not gonna vote for that anyway so it's just like he just doesn't even go into those issues he's like really like let's talk about California let's talk about California issues not all these other issues that don't not that they don't matter but that I can't tackle it's just you know and so he's very for the people in that sense

[00:25:21] yeah and I agree you know when when you said you know the the fact that people are calling him or that he's supported by Democrats you know it's ironic because I think last time we were here we were talking about the fact that one of the questions we were talking about was was the endorsement by Trump going to hurt him and we thought well probably so so now you know what a difference a month makes you know now we're here saying oh well maybe he's a Democrat he's just supported by by Democrats

[00:25:46] so I think it's really a testament to you know the fact that he is he's a moderate Republican he's you know he's not or a conservative Democrat he should appeal to that middle crowd quite well um if if if he's being endorsed by Trump and now people are angry because he's also being supported by Democrats he's in the right lane I mean that that's the definition of of a moderate right a centrist and

[00:26:11] that's I think what we all really most of us are somewhere in the middle and if we can just get out of that mindset that we have to vote r or d and focus on the issues at hand um and find a candidate that is in the middle Steve Hilton right now is that candidate no it's interesting that you're using that terminology moderate too I just was able to interview him a week or two ago in person I knew it would be the last time I would catch him before this primary and he he has strengthened and sharpened

[00:26:40] so much on that that term moderate and what he said was you know while yes I'm able to to reach people who are on very different sides of different issues his whole theme was about coming in kind of guns blazing into Sacramento and being aggressive and being strong and being a fighter and saying he didn't want to be misunderstood as as moderate meaning weak or moderate meaning soft on some issues

[00:27:10] he's very clear on what he wants to attack and get to and fix in this state and so I think Susan you're so right that you know he is able to to capture those people who who maybe they aren't on the fringe of these of these issues but he is going to go straight at the target on on a lot of these things and and I love reading through his policies and um they're all on his website for anyone who still isn't sure what

[00:27:36] they're doing between now and and Tuesday I hope that you would go take a look at stevehiltonforgovernor.com I believe it is and just read through his plans because the other thing I've realized too and just getting to know him so well is this matters to him it matters to him deeply um and when you see these democrat candidates right just they go down the line of these debates yes for the high-speed rail yes for health care for illegals you know just they cannot break out of that mentality of just towing the

[00:28:04] line even though they're not getting support from the people who are expecting that from them and and steve has just had the luxury and it really is a luxury to just be that candidate who goes out there and says I'm gonna get all of the information and just build my plans based on what we absolutely need to do I've talked to the experts and it's really fun to I mean you talk about Phil talks about us like geeking out on politics if you want to get real nerdy with me go take a look at all the policies on his

[00:28:31] on his website they're just fantastic and I'm so so hopeful um that he gets the chance at this because I I just am really confident it's going to do our state so much good so that will be my plea to anyone out there who who isn't sure about their vote or maybe you're disillusioned with how our leadership has has run things and you should be that's very uh you know understandable I would just say you know

[00:28:56] give this man a chance he really is going to do do a lot of good and I'd love to see him get the shot I'm sitting here chuckling to myself because every time you guys were saying something I wanted to bring up a point and then another one another one of you brought up the same point I was gonna bring up yeah and I was like well I might as well just turn my camera off and just go back to being producer because you guys got it you're fine um I do want to get on to other races though I don't want to spend

[00:29:25] the whole night on governor's race because there's a lot we have to cover my final thoughts uh I was skeptical of the Trump support it looks like it hasn't hurt him um I was skeptical back when he announced and he said make California golden again I did not like that I'm gonna be honest I thought that was too it invoked too much Trump and I thought you shouldn't even touch Trump and he's done a good job of kind of holding Trump at like an arm's length in California he hasn't really brought

[00:29:55] it up so that's probably why it's helped him um so we'll see I mean he's in the in the lead right now so I want to go around the horn real quick with our guests what's your prediction not for the full race but for the primary who do you think moves on do you think uh is there a scenario where it is two Republicans get through is that realistic uh we'll give you a couple seconds we'll start I don't know we'll start with Kyle we started with Kyle last time but she was muted so now we'll

[00:30:24] start with Kyle again okay um I think it's going to be Hilton Becerra at the end of the day there's no possible scenario in which two Republicans make it past the primary we just flat out don't have the numbers please please I beg you hear me on this it's pie in the sky and you're going to tank Hilton's chances if you if you push Chad at this point it's time we get clear-minded and strategic about this it's only a numbers game and you've got to back one and it's got to be the one who's

[00:30:53] vastly in the lead and has the shot here so it's got to be Hilton somebody did say in the comments Bianco should make a deal with Hilton and bow out okay so I do I do I know that we want to go around and I want to be respectful of everyone commenting on this but I do know that um Steve did reach out he has been reaching out to Chad Bianco and they were communicating for a while and then Chad just stopped responding at some point so I offer that information so that people you can make your

[00:31:22] determinations as you will but but Steve has been make you know extending the olive branch reaching out saying let's talk and let's work something out and the communication did stop from from Chad's direction a little insider information here on California Underground thank you uh Tess what's

[00:31:40] your prediction for the primary next week Susan uh I also will echo uh everything Kyle said I you

[00:32:11] know I agree with everything she said I think it's going to be Hilton and Becerra I also agree that um if you are a moderate Democrat like myself or or a more conservative Democrat like myself I know you don't like the word moderate so I'll try to change that a little bit um or you know if you're a Republican you know we do need to get serious and like you said you stop splitting the votes you can't you have to pick you have to be realistic you know I do a voter guide and when I do my voter guide I go you

[00:32:39] know two only two things matter policy and viability nothing else matters I don't care if you're black green white gay straight Republican or Democrat I need to know are you viable and what are your policies and so you know it's it is apparent now even if you like you know um Bianca before it is apparent now that Hilton is moving forward and voters need to get serious and go ahead and vote for Hilton I would like to add

[00:33:05] something I was going to come to you next Camille oh I didn't forget about you you said guess so um I I same that I believe it will be Hilton and Becerra but go to last week's podcast if you haven't already where we did discuss that um there might be some controversy with Becerra being entangled in

[00:33:28] this whole um election fraud stuff and payments and whatnot with the Dana Williamson which is Gavin Newsom former employee um which we talked about last week that that's not going to change anything for the primary it's too close people are already voting if it's Becerra they've already chose it Becerra but now we've got five months between the primary and the general and who knows

[00:33:54] what could happen and come out and there could I I don't know again we don't know that he's guilty he could be totally innocent but things could come out in between June 2nd and November whatever the date but there's five months a lot can happen I mean we saw we were sitting here talking about Eric Swalwell last time all of us were together and then within days he was done so yeah anything can

[00:34:18] happen um I wanted to say John Fleischman in the chat uh if you don't know who John Fleischman is he is the great uh he had flash report which I checked almost three times a day it's kind of like it was like the drudge report for California politics checked it all the time so uh go check out his sub stack as well an amazing writer about California politics been doing this way longer than I've been doing California politics so go check out John I want to flash that comment from him all right

[00:34:46] next topic which I'm sure our guests are very interested in uh there's an important mayoral race happening in Los Angeles um we've talked a lot about it Spencer Pratt has been surging it looks like he is in a solid second right now to Karen Bass it looks like Nithya Rahman has faded away uh LA may have dodged the bullet on their own mom Donnie in Los Angeles so that's if you're not a you know not a fan

[00:35:15] of socialism that's good news for you um let's talk about this mayoral race uh I mean we could probably predict that it's gonna be well correct me if I'm wrong the rule is Karen Bass would have to get more than 51 percent right to not have to I believe it's I'm sorry it's it's 50 percent and if

[00:35:39] she gets 50 percent and one vote it's 50 and one vote then she wins okay so it's 50 plus one so if she gets that then she doesn't have to face anybody she's just the mayor again uh for those who don't know that's how the rules work in Los Angeles for mayoral race I don't think she's gonna get 50 plus one Nithya Rahman hasn't dropped out she hasn't thrown her support behind anybody so it looks

[00:36:05] like there's gonna be a fractured support there for the Democrats Spencer Pratt has surged um I mean what do we say here it's it's a guy who started off as the reality tv star who I personally thought like uh you know this guy's getting into the race I understand he's angry but like okay like great you're gonna run for mayor and turn this into like a sideshow I'm gonna be honest he went from

[00:36:31] in my eyes to being someone who was like I can't believe this guy's running to okay this guy's doing better than I would have expected for a first time candidate uh Susan let's start with you your thoughts on the mayoral race how it's progressed because the last time I think we talked he was not polling as nearly as well as he was now so let's start with you Susan so Spencer you know like you when he first announced you know I thought okay you know

[00:37:01] I I didn't think it was really gonna go anywhere and like very much like you I thought okay he's angry um but I also thought he was you know a one one trick ponies palisades palisades palisades which don't get me wrong is a huge issue um but there are other areas of Los Angeles and what has been amazing about Spencer I was actually thought about when you were talking about how Steve has really you know reached out and and developed all these plans um one thing that

[00:37:28] I have seen with Spencer is that you know when he's in a crowd of people or when he goes to different areas um if people would ask him a question like what are you going to do about this and this and this at the beginning of the campaign he would say you know what that's not my strong point can I get your number I want to talk to you and by the next time I would see him at an event at an event he didn't just some politicians will throw out like key phrases so it sounds like they know what they're talking about but if you really know then you know there's no substance to it right

[00:37:57] by the time I will see Spencer at the next event he knows what the problem is who started it what needs to fix it and how to do it it's it's been absolutely astonishing to me how much information he has learned so quickly and and detailed I mean incredibly detailed information so I am thrilled for him I think he is going to make a fantastic mayor um if if nothing else one of

[00:38:24] the coolest things about the um Spencer Pratt race is that he has run as as an independent which independents notoriously don't do well because they don't get support from anywhere he's out raising everybody but the coolest part about it is when you look at any of his rallies any of his events look at the faces and look at the energy of the people in those rooms it is they are all enthusiastic they are joyful they are happy uh and it is been something that has been missing from

[00:38:52] all areas of Los Angeles for so long and I you know I think he has a fantastic chance at winning I don't know if he'll win it like I would love him to win it in June I don't know if that's going to happen um but I do think he stands a very very um viable chance of winning it in November I do want to pull this up real quick this is uh if anybody knows what's going to happen is the

[00:39:17] gamblers of the country uh so this is Kalshi it says who will advance in the Los Angeles mayoral election it's it's pretty pretty solid it's going to be Pratt and Bass so Karen Bass and Spencer Pratt out there 98 and 81 percent and Nithya Raman is way down there way way down there at 16 percent so to give you an idea of yeah that's changed a lot too in the last I don't know month that's completely

[00:39:46] changed his numbers have just absolutely skyrocketed over the last month and I think too in these last couple of months by virtue of him campaigning Spencer Pratt has convinced Spencer Pratt to vote for Spencer Pratt I think that he has become more invested in what he's doing more committed sharper better stronger throughout this process and and it's just been an absolute blast to watch like this

[00:40:14] campaign the the messaging the ads um just really bringing everything back to back to basics but also just back to like grassroots of what works what connects with the people and you're seeing that in everything that he he does and it's just been really tremendous to watch when it really clicked for me uh he did so well during the debate you know so well in fact that they canceled the debates after that

[00:40:40] right first Robin was like I don't want to do it anymore she had a horrible debate uh performance I mean one of the worst I think I've actually ever seen so whoever prepped her should be absolutely fired and banished from working on campaigns for all time um but but he just did so well just being authentic and genuine but really sealed it for me was this video that he released a week or two ago on his plan to end homelessness and to remove the narcan and to use the medication that's that's really

[00:41:09] effective and and why it's not a homelessness issue it's a drug issue and I mean I think that what he's done is actually personally connected with these issues and he said something in that video that really hit me he said you know what if this was your child and I think that what was going on with him at that point was he could see one of his own boys in that position and it just it hit him right in the middle right in the heart like if this was my son on the street drugged up and in this

[00:41:39] impossible situation what would I do to get him out and wow it's just having such an incredible ripple effect with the voters and the people of LA I don't know that he can take it with with 50 percent uh next week but I completely anticipate it will be him and bass going toe-to-toe until November but we all know how illegitimate the election system is in this state unfortunately that's just the reality

[00:42:06] we can't tiptoe around that things are things are highly questionable when it comes to our election system in the state of California in LA and Karen Bass has got a lot locked down but um I think I think he's got a real shot and we're just we're rooting for him all the way I think he'd be actually a great a great mayor I think uh you know I've said this before on some other shows like sometimes you could just find like a paper bag on the side of the road and stick it in the mayor's chair and I think it

[00:42:32] might do better than Karen Bass has been doing but I think he'd be great I think he cares a whole lot I'd love to see him get it I don't think that his opponents were expecting him to actually show up as a as a legit politician I think they're expecting him to be Spencer Pratt from the hills and I did a show a couple weeks ago about the debate and every it was the debate everyone was talking about um and just how he went after him but he went after him in like a methodical

[00:43:01] a methodical controlled way it wasn't necessarily I'm just gonna sit there and shout and wave my hands around he he channeled his anger and I think that was his winning formula that's what got people to really pay attention is that he took a lot of the anger maybe he he has from losing his home to the anger of Los Angelinos of I'm going to channel their anger as well about everything

[00:43:25] and I think that resonated with a lot of people um Tess what's your take on the LA mayoral race I know

[00:43:32] you did a whole video on it so someone brought up in the chat John brought up the issue of Republican

[00:45:07] registration in Los Angeles and does viral equal political math um there is Camille and I have been doing this long enough that we watch people who have big like social media followings jump into the race um funny enough that's how Camille and I met there was a candidate who had a big social media following and jumped into the race for governor and called him out that's a whole different story

[00:45:35] um social media is not real world in the sense of how many followers you have and how many likes you have on a video and how many people share and stuff like that um so there is truth to that that just because you're big on social media doesn't equate votes do you think that might be a blind spot for Spencer Pratt is yes his videos his AI videos the Batman video all that stuff's going viral it's going

[00:46:02] viral and right-leaning circles or independent circles um do you think it's just being viral on social media so it seems like he's doing really well or is he actually really doing well on the ground with voters you know his fundraising numbers his fundraising numbers have hit it out of the park I mean he has you know in his first period of fundraising he out raised both of them um and

[00:46:32] most of those donations were under a hundred dollars so that I mean most people if you're even in another state you're not going to send 50 bucks to Spencer Pratt right those are people who are you know working class people in LA that are just like I cannot I can't do this another minute I'm going to send him 50 dollars um and you know in this last report I think he's over 10 million dollars I mean

[00:46:55] there's no he's out raised them like 10 to 1 so you know money in a race is obviously I mean that's that's an indicator a strong indicator of your true viability and he's hit it out of the park yeah Susan's right you got to look at the full picture here not just the polling and and I think seeing his momentum grow yes the donations come in yes the numbers all go in the

[00:47:21] right direction but I think what's also been brilliant about his messaging campaigns is that he's made it okay to vote for him and okay to support him he even has that video of those guys barbecuing right have you seen that ad and it's like they don't want to say who they're voting for and then they all eventually say like I'm not afraid to share I'm voting for Spencer Pratt and I think that that is so genius because people now outside of LA wish they could vote for Spencer

[00:47:49] Pratt he he's opened that door and allowed people to to support him in a way that we don't usually see in this arena and so I I think that taking the space of time that he has he has made up so much ground and extending that now to November I think he's got a better shot than almost anyone I can I can remember or think of in recent history to do this um and I I appreciate the joke too that

[00:48:18] people are saying like oh I don't live in LA but I'm gonna go vote for him like what are they gonna do ID me that's racist right and so they've got a real problem on their on their hands the other issue too is that in a city like Los Angeles you know politics is just so political like there are people who are going to support Karen Bass but to support her in name only or in donations only that doesn't mean they're going to vote for her and and so I'm very curious to see the numbers at the end of the day

[00:48:48] because I do think that there is a faux amount of support for Karen Bass in like the traditionalists and the sort of entrenched corrupt um you know city establishment truly people that are expected to support someone like her who either aren't going to show up or they're secretly going to flip and I

[00:49:09] think that she's going to get the rug pulled out from under her pretty thoroughly here I the one thing

[00:50:11] I picked up from Spencer Pratt and this is a general comment on California politics rather than just Spencer Pratt I appreciate his willingness to swing big on his attacks and his rhetoric in a good way in a controlled way I feel like I don't know if you guys agree with me I feel like sometimes

[00:50:34] we're up against it so hard in a one-party state that I feel like people try to play too nice where they're like they're like oh I want to be seen as like the nice guy and maybe I'll peel away like a couple dozen votes but I don't think I think when you're losing as bad as like Republicans in this state are they keep losing more and more it's been changed a little bit but like you're at 25% of

[00:51:02] the voter electorate it's time to swing for the fences like you're it's time to go for the three-point shot it's time to go for the big gusto here like you can't play small in California and maybe that's because he's a novice politician and he's just going with his gut feeling I appreciate that I appreciate he's swinging big and it seems to be resonating it's almost like oh finally someone is

[00:51:26] really calling out what's happening in California and and not not apologetic about it um I've been saying that for years that I think if you're opposing Democrats or this one-party state you have to swing for the fences you got to stand out you got to be bold you can't be you can't be statist light you know you can't be left this light you have to be like I'm a stark contrast I have different policies I'm

[00:51:56] going to stand out and you're going to like it or not but I'm going to have my voice heard um is that the feeling anybody else is getting from him and do you think more people in California running should kind of adopt that strategy well that kind of goes into what Tess said earlier which is so true and one of the things that's great about Spencer is because I've seen people you know I kind of throw stuff back at him and you can't I mean you can't throw anything back at him because he's he's saying the truth

[00:52:26] and there's no there's no gotchas to be had and even on the stuff when they bring it up from 20 years ago he's like yeah I was 20 you know so what I mean he's he's not a politician and he is he's just like this is the truth yeah okay in my 20s I was an asshole a lot for an asshole at 20 you know um so what uh so if there's no gotcha moment and one of the things that I loved about the debate I actually liked after the debate even better because after he called her a liar and he was just

[00:52:54] so aggressive about right and you know it was great because afterwards all the fact checkers started back and you know again he knew his numbers it wasn't just some this random pine that's like he knew the numbers and he was on on point every fact checker that came on afterwards I'm sure they wanted to catch him on something nothing there was nothing he didn't they didn't catch him on anything again like Tess said it was just the truth he just spoke the truth and I think that's really

[00:53:20] resonating with people and it does make him a very difficult candidate to um to you know go against because he's not playing the game he's like I'm not playing call me whatever you want say what bring up whatever you want from past if I did I did it I didn't you know so how do you what do you do with

[00:53:38] that he's like yeah this is it yeah it's such a good question Phil because I think we're at one of

[00:55:06] those 2016 moments again remember you know how crazy 2016 was and nobody wanted to verbalize any support for Donald Trump but there was this massive groundswell of people who wanted exactly that kind of person and precisely those kinds of policies and that bull in the china shop and the the hero to swoop in and like fight off the bullies for us and I think that we're seeing that here in this

[00:55:31] la mayoral race a little bit is like everyone wants this right now and we're done being afraid to to talk about it we're done cowering in the corner because we're not liberal because we have had a lot of that but at the end of the day we have to live in our communities and I know you guys understand this so well like I live in a super blue hyper blue community um and not everyone is like

[00:55:57] me I am the bull in the china shop when it comes to speaking about my political um viewpoints and and my ideologies and and being prepared to back those up but many people are not that comfortable or they don't have all of their facts ready to go or they're they aren't ready to debate anyone at the drop of a hat and so it's a little bit more risky for them to step out and support someone who is not

[00:56:24] with what is perceived as the majority but I think that Spencer Pratt and candidates like him hopefully going forward are kind of re-carving that path for us again to say like look let's just enough of this like I'm not beholden to anyone no one's pulling my strings like I don't have you know all of these different unions stuffing millions in my pockets like let's just get down to what the issues are here's the plan to fix it and and that's plain speak that just going straight at the target is

[00:56:53] just it's it's resonating but I think it's giving us the opportunity again like in 2016 and back in 2024 again with President Trump the second time for people just to say like enough of this nonsense let's stick with the truth and what we know is right um and not be afraid afraid to

[00:57:13] be canceled because we're not doing that anymore uh all right predictions we'll go around the horn

[00:58:42] because there is one quick topic I want to get to before we sign off I know we started a little late so I don't want to keep everyone too long um so prediction for the primary next week I'm sure we all have the same exact prediction but we'll start with Kyle and work our way around we're talking LA LA what's your prediction for next week oh I know that my predictions are usually brutally honest but this one's gonna be injected with a tiny bit of hope um I I think I'm hopeful

[00:59:11] that um Spencer can carve away enough so that it's Pratt and Bass going forward and that she doesn't just take it okay Tess and Susan you're nodding your head so yeah I agree with Tess I I um I I don't think

[00:59:35] there's any way she wins this outright um well I shouldn't say that no one is LA I'm worried I'm a little worried so who knows where they're gonna find those votes but you know um if voters uh votes actually are counted properly and and they matter then it will be uh Bass and um and Spencer okay

[00:59:59] all right last quick uh discussion of the night there's more than just the LA and the governor's race so I want to ask all of you is there any other down ballot race that you are particularly keeping an eye on um I know we talk a lot about governor we love talking about Spencer Pratt in LA but there's a whole bunch if you look at your ballot there's a whole bunch of other things so

[01:00:24] I want to get your opinion on the state equalization board and this is a very exciting no um whatever uh what's want state equalization is actually very important so please they're all very important please research all of them is there any specific down ballot race that you are keeping your eye on that is is kind of important to you that may be overlooked in the headlines

[01:00:48] uh whoever wants to jump in first so it's not really on on my ballot but um I have been a little obsessed with Scott Wiener for a really long time okay yeah um and not not like I just think he's the greatest thing by the long stretch um I think he's probably one of the worst things that has ever happened to the state and so to think that he is going to Congress is just I cannot begin to

[01:01:18] well you guys are are political geeks like me too so I'm sure it's just like there's ones that just get under your skin and it drives me crazy um and he does have an opponent I can never remember her name it's Marie um Hurbell I'm not quite sure how to pronounce her name but she's wonderful she's great um and she does seem to be making some progress I don't really know where she's pulling right now but I am I'm hopeful that maybe we can at least get to a runoff there with her and then the attorney

[01:01:45] general's race is huge I mean that's a big deal um I obviously I don't want Rob Bonta to be re-elected so I'm I'm hopeful that we'll see some change there too but certainly keeping an eye on those two races as well yeah the Scott Wiener one I thought was fascinating because out of nowhere Nancy Pelosi came off the top rope and was like I'm going to endorse this totally separate person who's not polling well and it was like uh Scott Wiener has been living his whole life to take over Nancy

[01:02:13] Pelosi's seat and he probably thought he was the heir apparent to that seat and then you went with someone else and was probably devastated so that's a that's an interesting race as well uh Kyle what's a down ballot race you're thinking oh my gosh several um you know I just I just love a good election more than more than almost anything I'm hyper interested to see how the prop 50 uh ripple

[01:02:39] effect is going to to affect a lot of these uh districts obviously huge Kevin Kiley fan he got drawn right out of his district I I hold out some hope for him I just I cannot see him going away he needs to stay involved um just love the guy obviously the AG's race really interested to see that almost anything and just to take it take it back a step for just a second I have been really

[01:03:06] fascinated to see how these Trump endorsements have just almost gone like absolutely batting a thousand across across the country um obviously California is very different and I'm really curious to see of course with Steve Hilton being endorsed by the president but as these these primaries and these elections happen how they're just getting checked off and off and off um but I just got to know the head of Cal Doge Jenny Rae LaRue I interviewed her for my show that one's that episode's coming out she's

[01:03:33] also running for congress in the 47th which is Orange County which was redistricted and meant that that went red kind of to purple and now she's just fabulous so bright so sharp a numbers girl a finance girl um Cal Doge has been a tremendous success I'd love to see it continue but she's even if she wins she's going to keep at it with Cal Doge so I'm hopeful for her as well I'm really keeping an eye

[01:03:58] down there on the Orange County 47th district uh I just remembered one I'm going to keep it in my mind

[01:04:07] but I'll let Tess answer give her answer I'm I'm interested because we just found out my wife's

[01:04:59] insurance is going up by $1,500 next year so and she doesn't issue no part no speeding tickets no accidents nothing just $1,500 for the whole next year so we're like uh what is going on here probably hopefully someone better than Ricardo Lara who uses the office to take travel and luxurious trips all over the world um one of my downpacks hasn't been mentioned yet he was a guest of the

[01:05:25] show is Herb Morgan um Herb uh great guy he really understands that that position controller position a very important position um I like that he is all about opening the books and being transparent and using AI and technology and forward thinking and like we could figure this out we could literally doge California if we got the right person in there so I think if you got someone like him in there

[01:05:52] showing people the receipts of like where all the spending is going um what kind of ripple effect would that have on the electorate to see how much money we're wasting on different things so that's one of mine uh we also have here in San Diego we have measure a which seems to be the new democratic strategy they're trying it out in New York mom Donnie wants to try it out

[01:06:17] the second home tax which is it was proposed by Sean Elo Rivera and and if you guys don't understand it I don't fault you because it's very confusing his idea is we're going to tax second homes because there's not enough houses so we're going to punish people to sell their houses through taxes but also we're going to raise revenue by taxing these second houses which doesn't make sense because you're

[01:06:44] either doing one or the other either you're trying to tax people to get out of their homes or you're taxing them for extra revenue also those second homes are like in La Jolla and they're like seven million dollars like I I'm not moving into that that's not affordable housing so and then they want to get you on prop 13 after that right it's yeah well they're always chipping away at prop 13 we know that so you know these vacancy tax things have always been mind-boggling to me because you've got people that own usually if it's a vacation home like you said it's probably you know going to be a

[01:07:14] decently priced home they're paying as much property tax as everybody else and using almost none of the services right they're probably not using your schools you're not using the fire department they're not using water on the grid as much so they're using a fraction of the services that they're paying for it's insane to me that those are the people that you would target to go yeah let's make them pay more I mean it's insane that's that's an excellent point I hadn't I haven't even thought

[01:07:42] of that but yeah the people it's hard enough to own a home in California and it's expensive enough imagine owning a second home in San Diego I mean you must be doing pretty well if you're owning a second home in San Diego and those are not affordable houses that you're bringing back onto the market so I'm interested in that one specifically so yeah those are some of my down ballot Camille I don't know if

[01:08:10] you had any other down ballots that you wanted to bring up I'm almost afraid to talk I'll just get kicked off so I think I'll just listen okay all right a little bit past our hour thank you so much to our panel everybody who tuned in in the chat we love everybody in the chat I've been keeping an eye on it chat has been a while tonight so want to go around the horn let everybody say where they can

[01:08:39] find you watch more of you Kyle and Tess you have shows here on YouTube so go check them out so let's start with our newest guest Tess why don't you tell people where they can come find you

[01:09:35] Susan where can people come find you I am primarily on Instagram at Susan Collins LA my page is full of information on ballot measures candidates it's a lot of opinion pieces a lot of social media posts that kind of stuff my page is 100% nonpartisan I like I said I've never never voted red or blue I vote for

[01:10:01] the best person with the most policies so that's that's my page come see me Kyle you're okay behind you yeah well we've got both okay so being Kyle Campbell and at politically basic on all platforms um yeah I'm still doing the show weekly I talk to experts in every arena of the political gamut and

[01:10:26] they break down their expertise into the basics so we're all luring together but we are actually really learning um but yeah please follow along and I'm just about to start filming a whole new slew of episodes so I'm very excited for those so yeah yeah I love you guys you guys always have the best guests on too I love Susan Tess you're amazing I'm so glad to know about you so Phil Camille keep doing what you guys are doing because you're just you're just amazing and I love you both so much thank you

[01:10:56] thank you oh well thank you guys for coming on all of us keep doing what we're doing yeah love these round tables a lot of fun we got I'm sure we'll have more throughout the year because we're only in the just we were joking before how tired we are it's already the primary and we haven't even hit the real general election yet so we still got that we still got propositions oh my gosh there's so much to go over coming up in the next six months not tonight we're not going to talk about anything

[01:11:25] anything tonight that will save that admit it there's every one of us would probably okay we do try to we'd all be like okay yeah let's talk about this proposition am I here yep yeah you'll see and hear you okay so I just want to say that um we do have a California underground telegram channel where we do um uh honestly we've been a little bit slow about it lately mostly my fault

[01:11:51] but um we do try to dive into other topics that we don't have time to get here and just you know share California news and sometimes national news and maybe even cultural issues and whatnot um I think the information is on this page but join our telegram and you can chat along with us we we want to hear from you so if you enjoy chatting on our Tuesday night live please join our telegram because you can

[01:12:14] chat all throughout the week awesome well thank you to everyone again for tuning in make sure you get out and vote you can mail you can I dropped off my ballots today at the post office um get out and vote whether it's by mail whether it's early voting whether it's on the day voting just make sure you go vote uh it is next Tuesday so do not miss it and thank you everyone for tuning in make sure you like share subscribe review and the best thing you can do that is 100% free to support

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