Ep. 281: 2024 Election Predictions

[00:00:06] If you're a California conservative, a libertarian, a moderate Democrat, believe in common sense, or just the sane person, this is the political podcast for you. It's the California Underground Podcast.

[00:00:27] What's going on, everybody? Thanks for tuning into another episode of the California Underground Podcast. I am your host, Phil. And as always with me, my trusty cohost, the best, the fastest researcher in the West, Camille and our special guest tonight, a good friend of the show.

[00:00:41] Zach is back with us to talk all things election prediction. So it's one week until the big, faded election day that we've all been talking about, we've all been posturing about, we've all been hypothesizing about for what it seems like four years at this point. We are finally here. We're in the final week. So how's everyone doing tonight?

[00:01:04] Good, good. We made it.

[00:01:07] Zach, I mean, a week is a very long time in this realm. So I'm just trying to get through this finish line, but yeah.

[00:01:16] Zach, not to put you on the spot, but because you're involved with the San Diego Young Republicans, you are probably extra busy with election season right now.

[00:01:26] Yeah, it's more than, you know, not, of course, to take credit away from people that spend time doing a lot of the research and learning and doing that exhaustive task. But I've been in the neighborhoods talking to people, engaging with the voters. And it's been quite an interesting experience. Every election cycle, and I've been privileged to be a part of the whole, there's always things that stand out to me.

[00:01:51] Same with this one. They're very strange things that stand out. We're in a strange time right now. But yeah, it's been exhausting. But again, there's so much on the line right now. And there's no other thing else to do.

[00:02:06] I'm excited to hear your input because you're actually out there, you know, talking to the voters and everything. So I'm excited to hear what insight you have to offer us.

[00:02:15] Sure. Yeah.

[00:02:16] On the ground, on the ground reporting.

[00:02:21] Yeah, it's crazy. You say, you know, a week is it seems like it's fast, but a lot of things can happen in a week. I mean, we're gonna talk about presidential stuff probably at the end of the show, you know, and with the big shebang.

[00:02:33] But it's crazy how it seems like everyone was talking about this Puerto Rico incident, the Puerto Rico joke. That was all the news. And then literally like 35 minutes ago, Biden said, called all Trump supporters trash.

[00:02:48] So now it's like, oh, well, that stuff like that happens in politics, like a week to go. Who knows what can happen? I think it's crazy. So. All right. Before we get started, we have been doing this cringe moment of the week. I think we might be well, I guess we'll continue it after the election. There's no reason not to continue it after the election.

[00:03:11] So we're gonna do one final before the presidential election. So this is our final before the whole big election next week. So this is our cringe moment of the week. Oh, wait, hold on. Hold on. Camille gets mad if I don't do this correctly.

[00:03:26] She gets mad. She yells at me after the show. She threatens to quit. So here's our stinger for our cringe moment of the week.

[00:03:35] No, hold on. Come on. Work with me here. Again.

[00:03:39] You think you just fell out of a coconut tree?

[00:03:44] Thank you.

[00:03:46] Thank you.

[00:03:47] Thank you.

[00:03:47] You better thank you. I gotta get that soundbite. That might be the next one.

[00:03:50] I gotta get in there.

[00:03:51] Thank you.

[00:03:56] Cringe moment of the week. Here we go.

[00:03:59] Weeping man.

[00:04:19] Yep. And that's her latest accent. Just when you think like she hasn't debuted enough accents, she's like, I'm gonna debut a new one. I am now Kamala Luther King Harris. So.

[00:04:31] I mean, who has a few types of, I mean, who sit there and goes, Kamala, you don't throw in an accent right now? They're gonna love it.

[00:04:41] I mean, I don't understand the strategy there.

[00:04:47] Yeah. You think after the first like half a dozen times of people making fun of her accents, they'd be like, maybe don't do accents. Don't do that anymore because they make fun of you for it. And for some reason she keeps doing it.

[00:04:59] Campaign managers and consultants. Like where are her voices of reason? Where'd they go?

[00:05:06] Yeah, definitely not advice I would give, but you know, I don't want better campaign. So.

[00:05:11] Well, I guess that's what happens when you throw a campaign together in like a week and have to figure it out for the last two months of a presidential cycle.

[00:05:18] So. All right. Where should we start in terms of all? We got a whole bunch of stuff in the show notes. It is a mess of stuff going on here.

[00:05:26] We did all this hard work and all this research. And then Zach goes, I didn't read any of it. So I'm just letting you guys know I'm flying by the seat of my pants.

[00:05:33] Wow, Phil.

[00:05:37] That's common, isn't he?

[00:05:38] Zach was just like, he's like, whatever, guys, I got this. You don't need to give me show notes.

[00:05:45] I'm fine. No, I wrote my notes.

[00:05:48] All right. Should we start with, should we start with.

[00:05:52] How about San Diego mayoral race? Let's start there.

[00:05:56] Well, that's fun.

[00:05:57] That's a good one.

[00:05:58] That's my favorite.

[00:05:58] I don't even live in San Diego and it's my favorite.

[00:06:02] So who wants, anybody want to start about it or jump right in?

[00:06:07] I mean, I guess I'll start.

[00:06:09] So if you have had the privilege of watching any of these debates that Gloria has resisted for quite a while until a couple of weeks ago, they are complete.

[00:06:22] Poachos.

[00:06:23] Because if you, if you, if you, the way that Gloria holds himself, it's all condescending pompousness.

[00:06:31] It's everything pompous.

[00:06:33] It's everything we've been doing is working.

[00:06:35] We just need to keep doing more.

[00:06:36] We need to keep begging the government and everything is fine.

[00:06:39] Everything is great.

[00:06:40] You know, butterflies and, and, and rainbows.

[00:06:44] But I feel like when you, when you compare the two between Gloria and Turner, Turner is providing and expressing that urgency and that frustration that I think San Diegans are for the most part sick of being ignored about and pretending like everything is fine.

[00:07:01] You know, you could look at any level of government and it's almost like they don't see the reality that half the population see.

[00:07:08] And because there's no acknowledgement of that, it's, it's, I mean, the serious contrast between someone like Turner who's exhibiting like, hey, we need some urgency.

[00:07:18] You're off campaigning in, in Las Vegas for Kamala Harris, probably for a future appointment, he hopes.

[00:07:26] San Diego has its own laundry list of things that deserve full attention.

[00:07:31] So, I don't know, that's not really upset to me because it's not as if things are great in San Diego and you can just, you should just be off helping his friends come by next time.

[00:07:40] Are you, you're actually in the city of San Diego?

[00:07:43] I am.

[00:07:44] Yeah.

[00:07:44] Yes.

[00:07:45] Yes.

[00:07:46] I am very far removed.

[00:07:48] I am up in North Orange County.

[00:07:50] And I think, I think, you know, as big as San Diego is, I think a lot can get lost around the county from what goes on in San Diego.

[00:08:02] I mean, I live in Little Italy right near downtown San Diego.

[00:08:06] So when you hear people talking about the stuff that goes on in downtown, it does.

[00:08:11] When you hear people complaining about the craziness and wild behavior that goes on in downtown San Diego, it's happening.

[00:08:18] I mean, just yesterday, I got, I think it was yesterday, I got a report that it was a naked woman running around the streets, 600 feet away.

[00:08:25] I mean, I have the Citizens app, which I would caution you getting because it's, you really get a scope of the crimes going on in your area and it gives you the police report and everything that's detailed going on.

[00:08:36] So if you really want to know how things are going, download that app because it's all live, by the moment crime reports.

[00:08:47] And I think, again, you're not experiencing this type of stuff every day, hearing, screaming, or, you know, if you're not engaging in any of that by just living in the area, then it's just, you know, full fear mongering.

[00:09:00] And it's like, no, there's serious crap going on.

[00:09:04] And it happens mostly at night, but not always.

[00:09:09] I mean, I'm right there with you.

[00:09:12] We just moved to Hillcrest.

[00:09:13] So we're right here in the city.

[00:09:15] So we see it on a daily basis.

[00:09:19] I'm not sure if the naked homeless lady you're referring to is the same naked homeless lady who runs around outside our office building and screams bloody murder.

[00:09:30] Might be the same.

[00:09:31] Or maybe there's multiple naked homeless ladies running around literally that area.

[00:09:36] Yeah.

[00:09:37] Just, but yeah, I think he's, Gloria has been someone who has done the bare minimum.

[00:09:44] And I've talked to local politicians who have reaffirmed this, this observation that he is a politician who does like the bare minimum just to like get by.

[00:09:55] Like he doesn't want to commit to anything and doesn't want to take a controversial stance on anything.

[00:09:59] He does just enough so he can like grab that upper rung.

[00:10:04] My issue with Larry Turner and Camille and I have talked about this a lot is obviously the issue that is glaring to us is the whole, where does he actually live?

[00:10:14] Does he live in San Diego?

[00:10:15] Does he live in El Cajon?

[00:10:17] Lives in El Cajon.

[00:10:18] Camille's done a lot of research and she does the research.

[00:10:21] She's got the receipts.

[00:10:24] It's their last piece.

[00:10:26] To me that, you know, I think that was a turnoff for me personally.

[00:10:33] It's kind of those things where like, I don't like Gloria.

[00:10:35] I think Gloria has been God awful for the city.

[00:10:38] I miss Kevin Faulkner.

[00:10:39] Things were great when Kevin Faulkner was mayor.

[00:10:40] Things were clean and respectable down here.

[00:10:43] But it kind of worries me that this whole El Cajon San Diego thing happened because if he's willing to fudge the truth on that, then I wonder what else he's willing to fudge the truth on.

[00:10:57] And that kind of worries me about Larry Turner.

[00:11:00] To be honest, I think this is one vote.

[00:11:02] Like, I'll probably just like not vote for either of them.

[00:11:05] And I'm not telling anybody how to vote.

[00:11:06] I'll just probably, I'm just telling you my personal feeling about San Diego is I'll probably just skip it and be like, nah, okay.

[00:11:12] Now, I'm sure if Gloria wins by one vote, everyone's going to come back and kill me over it.

[00:11:17] You're on record not saying that.

[00:11:19] Yeah.

[00:11:19] I'm on record saying that.

[00:11:20] On paper, Turner's like clearly the best choice.

[00:11:24] You know what you're going to get with Gloria.

[00:11:28] No, you don't even know what you're going to get with Gloria.

[00:11:30] Like, because he may check out and just things could get worse.

[00:11:35] And so I understand Turner's been a cop there for like years.

[00:11:41] I don't know how many years.

[00:11:42] But for me, we've been attacking Carl DeMaio over his residency.

[00:11:48] And so we should be probably giving the same treatment to Larry Turner.

[00:11:52] And I do know that he has not moved out of his El Cajon residence.

[00:11:58] And El Cajon is like 20-ish miles northeast, I think, of San Diego.

[00:12:04] And I just wonder what is the goal here?

[00:12:07] Like, why is he pretending to do this?

[00:12:10] And that's what makes me not trust him.

[00:12:12] Again, he's not on my ballot.

[00:12:13] I'm not even in that county.

[00:12:15] So, like, I'm not voting and I'm not telling anyone how to vote.

[00:12:18] I'm just saying my reservation's here.

[00:12:20] I'm glad I'm not in this situation because I think I would also have to be like, I'm

[00:12:25] abstaining, but this is important to me.

[00:12:27] This is my city.

[00:12:27] So which one?

[00:12:29] And so I am, Zach, I'm not like even, nothing is like, I'm trying to tell you what to do or

[00:12:34] anything like that.

[00:12:35] No, yeah.

[00:12:35] You know, these would be my reservations.

[00:12:38] And they're absolutely legit.

[00:12:40] And I think living in San, in the city and being faced with this decision, I will say

[00:12:48] this has probably been, for myself personally, in many cases, one of the most difficult elections

[00:12:54] when it comes down to either candidates or some of the propositions in ways.

[00:12:58] Just because there's a lot of nuance to making these decisions, right?

[00:13:02] Just because you're voting for someone, I mean, you support them, really.

[00:13:07] I mean, I know there's a, there's a, a truck of people trying to associate, oh, well, you

[00:13:11] vote for them, you support them, you sign off, you co-sign, you deliver, it's like, okay,

[00:13:16] I mean.

[00:13:16] It's like when you're talking about Trump, you're not choosing your Valentine, your partner

[00:13:20] in life, your, my goodness.

[00:13:23] The temporary office position.

[00:13:25] Exactly.

[00:13:26] You know, elected in, what are you guys, four years?

[00:13:30] Four years and you choose someone else?

[00:13:33] Which yes, a lot can happen in four years, but yeah, this isn't a life commitment.

[00:13:37] It's not a religion.

[00:13:38] It's not, you're just like, okay, I, I know that things have gotten really bad under Gloria.

[00:13:44] This is my other option.

[00:13:46] I definitely don't trust Gloria.

[00:13:50] Yeah.

[00:13:50] And I, and I, the way I, I exactly.

[00:13:53] And I think the way I conceptualize it or, or I guess justify it myself is, you know,

[00:13:58] in many respects downtown or just San Diego, the city of San Diego has had a boot on the

[00:14:04] throat of it.

[00:14:05] And it's been applying every month, week that goes by, that pressure seems to have gotten

[00:14:09] heavier.

[00:14:10] And I feel like in many voters' minds, kind of relieving that foot, even if it comes with

[00:14:17] someone that, yeah, has some questions to their, to their residency or their, oh, if they're

[00:14:23] lying or what would have you.

[00:14:25] I think there's a lot of people that are going to be like, you know what?

[00:14:28] Yeah, that's sketchy.

[00:14:29] But the stuff that Gloria has verifiably been doing is far more sketchy to the city and

[00:14:36] to my life.

[00:14:38] And for those reasons, I think that's how it can boil down.

[00:14:41] Hope so, because I don't think another four years of Gloria, anything positive for the city

[00:14:46] of San Diego.

[00:14:48] Yeah.

[00:14:49] Yeah.

[00:14:49] It's a, it's a tough one because, you know, and then I'm sure people are getting the news

[00:14:54] that a lawyer, a local lawyer has dumped, I think 3.5 or 3.1, excuse me, 1.5 or 1.3

[00:15:02] million dollars into Turner's race.

[00:15:06] Damn.

[00:15:06] Oh, yeah, that's a lot of money to dish out single-handedly.

[00:15:09] Okay.

[00:15:10] Yeah.

[00:15:10] I mean, I wish I had that much money to just hand over to a politician.

[00:15:14] For political, yeah.

[00:15:15] Yeah, I agree with all those points.

[00:15:18] And obviously being here in like the beating heart, like, you know, I, I live in an area

[00:15:24] and then I drive downtown and I, you know, my life literally revolves around a five square

[00:15:31] mile radius.

[00:15:32] Like I thought about that the other day.

[00:15:34] I was like, I really don't go anywhere outside of this five mile radius.

[00:15:36] I live and do everything really close.

[00:15:39] I see it.

[00:15:40] I see it every day.

[00:15:40] I'm in it.

[00:15:41] I will, I, you know, I'll be happy if Gloria loses.

[00:15:44] Um, I'll be ecstatic that he loses.

[00:15:48] And maybe Turner proves me wrong.

[00:15:50] Maybe this was like a hiccup and an oversight on his part to be like, eh, maybe you should

[00:15:54] have taken care of this beforehand rather than come out and say all this, you know,

[00:16:00] I don't know.

[00:16:01] New candidate, new politician doesn't, didn't understand what he had to do.

[00:16:05] So I will say, I think, and I'm sure you know, can probably verify or, or just refute me what

[00:16:11] I'm saying, but I feel like I heard it was associate of God Gloria that filed this lawsuit

[00:16:20] and did it in a me, in a way to try and play this type of semantic game.

[00:16:25] I don't know.

[00:16:26] It was kind of a, it was a big story in the beginning and then it's sort of like fizzled

[00:16:30] out.

[00:16:31] So I don't know.

[00:16:31] It is kind of fishy that there was a lawsuit.

[00:16:35] And then as soon as he passed the primary, they dropped the lawsuit because it's like,

[00:16:39] well, if it's a valid claim, why wouldn't you just, why would you just keep going?

[00:16:44] Um, all right.

[00:16:45] So predictions on Gloria versus Turner.

[00:16:49] Now this is when we get to put you to the test and get your, get it on the record.

[00:16:53] What do you think?

[00:16:54] Gloria.

[00:16:55] Revisit these predictions and see how on or off.

[00:16:58] Let's see where we're at.

[00:16:59] Yeah.

[00:17:00] Yeah.

[00:17:00] That's the point.

[00:17:01] This is election prediction.

[00:17:04] Don't be wrong.

[00:17:06] Keeping in mind that the most recent poll, which was the 22nd has Gloria up by 16 points.

[00:17:12] I think Gloria wins.

[00:17:13] I'm not there.

[00:17:15] That's just my prediction.

[00:17:16] That's not saying.

[00:17:17] Hold on.

[00:17:18] Hold on.

[00:17:18] He's up by 16, but 19% remain undecided.

[00:17:23] Not saying they'll all break for Turner, but 19% of what number though?

[00:17:31] Of 530 likely voters.

[00:17:37] I, if that's the sample.

[00:17:38] So I think it will be closer than Gloria probably likes and hope probably eke out a victory.

[00:17:49] I think he's got the machine.

[00:17:51] He's got the democratic machine down here in San Diego.

[00:17:55] And, you know, whoever his deputy mayor is will eventually buy.

[00:18:00] Well, this kind of goes to later predictions.

[00:18:03] So I won't make any predictions about where he ends up.

[00:18:05] He'll probably be mayor for the next four years until he has to move on to statewide office.

[00:18:10] Like.

[00:18:10] Is he termed out?

[00:18:11] It's two terms.

[00:18:12] Yeah.

[00:18:13] Yeah.

[00:18:14] So.

[00:18:15] All right.

[00:18:16] Any other predictions?

[00:18:18] Did we, did we get everybody?

[00:18:20] One's Zach's prediction.

[00:18:21] Oh, what's Zach's prediction?

[00:18:22] So.

[00:18:24] This was a.

[00:18:25] There's a part of me that has done the rational work and looked at the logistics and the numbers

[00:18:29] and the data and kind of the landscape and kind of understand things through that lens.

[00:18:34] But then there's a side of me that's like, look, I've seen upsets happen.

[00:18:37] I've seen crazy swing things happen.

[00:18:39] And so I'm going to continue to be enthusiastic that Turner can pull this one out.

[00:18:44] That being said, I'm not naive to the power grip that Gloria has over San Diego resources

[00:18:50] and industry, just much like Fletcher had.

[00:18:53] And I know that having kind of gridlock or the full on.

[00:18:59] I know that important parts of San Diego industry really puts you, kind of gives you the tips,

[00:19:09] the hat to a shoe in just because how large those interests are.

[00:19:12] So like you said, I think it's going to get close.

[00:19:16] And I think that being close will energize a bunch of Republicans on independence for future

[00:19:23] types of races, given he would be turned up.

[00:19:26] But I do think Gloria will probably edge over the top on this one.

[00:19:33] Yeah.

[00:19:34] Unfortunately, I think he will.

[00:19:36] Although I've seen a lot more Larry Turner signs in this neighborhood than I have.

[00:19:40] So have I in my neighborhood as well.

[00:19:43] Like I don't see Todd Gloria stuff.

[00:19:44] So that's why I'm also like...

[00:19:46] One point the realion can buy a lot of signs.

[00:19:49] Get a lot of people out to vote.

[00:19:51] All right, let's move on to some assembly races.

[00:19:54] Our favorite politician facing off against Andrew Hayes, Carl DeMaio versus Andrew Hayes,

[00:20:00] Republican versus Republican in the 75th District.

[00:20:03] We know what's been going on with Carl, the recent lawsuit, Andrew Hayes.

[00:20:09] You know, he's been the official endorsed Republican of the San Diego County Party,

[00:20:17] which definitely gives you a big...

[00:20:19] I think that's a big leg up because there's a lot of people who get those pamphlets in the mail

[00:20:25] and they go, I have no idea who I'm voting for.

[00:20:28] Who does the San Diego County GOP say I'm voting for?

[00:20:31] And they just go right down the ballot.

[00:20:33] And that helps a lot.

[00:20:35] Carl DeMaio does have a lot of name recognition.

[00:20:38] He's got a ton of little old ladies and old men donating their pensions to him.

[00:20:44] But does he have enough, you know, name recognition and swagger anymore?

[00:20:49] I don't know.

[00:20:50] He's not on the radio anymore.

[00:20:51] So he's kind of faded into that background.

[00:20:53] But he's throwing beers and barbecues like three times a week.

[00:20:58] And they seem to be pretty full.

[00:21:01] Who?

[00:21:02] Hayes or DeMaio?

[00:21:03] DeMaio.

[00:21:04] Sorry.

[00:21:04] Yeah.

[00:21:05] Yeah, he's like a local celebrity.

[00:21:07] So, you know.

[00:21:08] Yeah.

[00:21:09] To some people, just meeting Carl DeMaio is like a big deal to them.

[00:21:12] It's like meeting our version of.

[00:21:14] That is so sad.

[00:21:16] I know.

[00:21:17] It's very sad.

[00:21:18] It's very sad.

[00:21:19] I mean.

[00:21:20] At ballgad.

[00:21:21] But Camille, you know what that's like when you go to a place and people recognize you

[00:21:25] and mob you as a celebrity.

[00:21:26] You know.

[00:21:28] Camille, who gets recognized more about the podcast wherever we go than I do.

[00:21:33] Camille from the podcast.

[00:21:34] Is not an exaggeration.

[00:21:37] But the.

[00:21:39] I'm just so sweet.

[00:21:41] Yeah.

[00:21:42] Yeah.

[00:21:42] People think he's a celebrity here.

[00:21:43] He's kind of like if you ordered Ben Shapiro off Timu or something.

[00:21:47] That's what they think of him as.

[00:21:48] So.

[00:21:49] He was on the radio.

[00:21:50] And then, of course, he has reform.

[00:21:52] So I see how that people could get all excited about him being.

[00:21:57] You know, they see him up with Harmeet Dylan and like.

[00:22:00] Mm hmm.

[00:22:01] So.

[00:22:02] Yeah.

[00:22:03] Yeah.

[00:22:03] It's a lot of gaslighting and you can gaslight a lot of people.

[00:22:07] We're not going easy tonight, are we?

[00:22:10] No, of course not.

[00:22:11] When have we ever gone easy?

[00:22:14] We're usually a little more.

[00:22:15] We're usually a little more profesh tonight.

[00:22:17] We're just like.

[00:22:18] All right.

[00:22:19] Well, so come back.

[00:22:19] What is your insight here?

[00:22:21] I know.

[00:22:21] I know you are very close friends with Carl DeMaio.

[00:22:26] Go way back.

[00:22:29] OK, so I think it's pretty known.

[00:22:32] Or if it's not, it should be that there are.

[00:22:35] There are strong rifts between Carl and Republican.

[00:22:39] And I think in ways that are more noticeable than other rifts between Republican fractions,

[00:22:44] mostly because of the effort one goes, goes to undermine other Republicans.

[00:22:50] Right.

[00:22:51] So if you call that out, you're accused of attacking Republicans.

[00:22:55] But if you go behind closed doors and manipulate things, steal on people and make things happen

[00:23:01] behind, then, you know, it's just political nature.

[00:23:07] It's just happening.

[00:23:08] So when I'm out in the field and I've gone into the trenches and I've talked to people

[00:23:12] and gone to three types of voters, right?

[00:23:14] The Republicans, the independent non-partner party preference, it's four, and then the Democrats.

[00:23:19] And my favorite conversations actually, I don't know if I'd say favorite, but most, I think,

[00:23:26] interesting conversations were actually with Democrat voters because they looked at this

[00:23:32] election as, I mean, mainly it's a pretty solid red district and it hasn't really been

[00:23:41] up for grabs between a Democrat and Republican in I don't even know how long.

[00:23:46] So when you talk to them, people know him immediately, like you said.

[00:23:52] Well, if you're paying any bit of attention to local San Diego politics in the county, you

[00:23:56] know who he is.

[00:23:57] And Merrill has never been somebody to any type of, it sounds so godly, working together.

[00:24:08] I know that's like an evil thing nowadays, like that you want to stay as far away from doing

[00:24:13] any type of bipartisan efforts or whatnot.

[00:24:16] And the perfect example of this is when local civil rights activist Shane Harris went on the

[00:24:22] news talking about how the state of California basically handcuffed, no pun intended, but handcuffed

[00:24:29] police from being able to intervene on what could proceed to be very much child sex trafficking.

[00:24:37] And because of discrimination laws on the LGBT community, there's a lot of things that prevent

[00:24:41] officers from engaging.

[00:24:43] Well, Shane Harris came out, Democrat, went out and said, this is probably not a good policy

[00:24:47] and we should change the state policy or change local policies to allow our police to stop these

[00:24:54] things.

[00:24:55] That's San Diego's a very large trafficking capital.

[00:24:58] This is a real issue here.

[00:25:01] Right.

[00:25:01] And then, so then they had him do this piece.

[00:25:03] They brought fire alarm.

[00:25:04] And, you know, where one might think, hey, yeah, Shane is actually making some valid points

[00:25:11] that Republicans probably want to address too.

[00:25:14] Rather than make any type of acknowledgement, Carl's immediate thing was to attack that Democrat

[00:25:20] for not getting to this conclusion quick and or for not doing it correctly or not, you know,

[00:25:26] and it's like, rather than seeing this as an opportunity to get something done that's hurting

[00:25:30] communities, it's an opportunity for him to pivot off how he was right all along.

[00:25:35] And they've been doing this to themselves and now they want to do it.

[00:25:39] Now they're doing it.

[00:25:39] And it's like, my dude.

[00:25:41] It was a voice.

[00:25:43] Yeah.

[00:25:43] And it's like, you want to go to the state assembly and do what?

[00:25:48] Shack throw?

[00:25:49] I mean, mudsling?

[00:25:50] I mean, that's, and actually, that is what he plans to do.

[00:25:54] I mean, he said it in his latest speech this past week.

[00:25:57] He said, if nothing else, just send me up there so that I can entertain you because we're

[00:26:01] going to have a lot of fun along those lines.

[00:26:04] But it was like completely admitting that, yeah, he's going to be a chaotic agent that's

[00:26:09] not looking to get anything done.

[00:26:10] That's looking for name recognition and just running his mouth.

[00:26:13] And I don't think that does anything to move the needle for Republicans here in California.

[00:26:19] I think it actually damages and hurts Republicans.

[00:26:21] It actually ruins reputations for Republicans.

[00:26:23] If everybody thinks California Republicans are like Carl DeMaio, then that's not a good

[00:26:29] look.

[00:26:30] A lot of optic elements.

[00:26:33] One thing that I've said to the Democrat voters is like, look, there are two Republicans in

[00:26:37] this race and one of them is going to win.

[00:26:39] There are very different Republicans on this ballot.

[00:26:43] And I caution, you know, your your I caution you on making these decisions.

[00:26:51] And I, of course, Andrew is the person that isn't going to lose the values that he's continued

[00:26:57] to champion for over a decade plus, but still be able to find ways that.

[00:27:04] It's been deniable for Democrats to disagree with.

[00:27:07] And that's the kind of strategy you need.

[00:27:09] Find something they can't say no to.

[00:27:11] Not let's find ways to piss them off and be just as extreme to try and prove a point.

[00:27:17] And I think that's what people see as Carl doing.

[00:27:21] He's just trying to prove a point.

[00:27:22] And those are very cringy Republicans.

[00:27:25] Yeah.

[00:27:26] And I don't think that's true.

[00:27:27] I don't know if he's not a liberal today.

[00:27:28] And it's like, what did you accomplish?

[00:27:31] Nothing.

[00:27:32] Nothing.

[00:27:32] And we had injuries on here and he is so he's so bright.

[00:27:36] And he was very like, I want to form these actual like he's not like up there to make

[00:27:41] friends, but like relationships of like we need to learn to work together.

[00:27:44] We need to form these coalitions because we're we're for California.

[00:27:48] We're not for ourselves.

[00:27:50] We're not for like we're representing everybody.

[00:27:54] Exactly.

[00:27:55] And he's he's a year younger than me.

[00:27:57] And so him and I both grew up in the same political sort of suit.

[00:28:02] And I think for much of our generation, regardless of political affiliation, there is an urge to

[00:28:09] like, let's try to work on stuff together.

[00:28:12] But you don't hear that because the loudest voices are the ones telling you that you should

[00:28:16] hate person because they're evil.

[00:28:19] X, Y and Z.

[00:28:20] Right.

[00:28:20] So I think this it's a very interesting micro microcosm of kind of the macro in many ways

[00:28:29] and some of the challenges that are presented within the Republican side, but also how that

[00:28:33] plays out in real time elections where Carl funded the Democrats in his race.

[00:28:39] Like, what are you doing trying to clear the field for me?

[00:28:42] Really?

[00:28:43] Make give you're going to give a Democrat name recognition that can and will hold through

[00:28:49] and maybe carry into the next cycle, giving that Democrat another upper hand to win an election.

[00:28:54] Like, do you not see the consequences of those types of actions?

[00:28:57] And whether he sees them or not, I don't think he cares.

[00:29:00] And I don't think that's a type of leader any of us should model or look up to when looking

[00:29:06] to address California issues.

[00:29:08] So I'm very passionate about this.

[00:29:10] So I don't mean to stand.

[00:29:11] No.

[00:29:12] That's why we brought you on.

[00:29:14] It's for the passion.

[00:29:15] I mean, I think.

[00:29:19] Basically, I want Andrew Hayes to win.

[00:29:22] I don't know if the machine of Carl DeMaio goes down so easily.

[00:29:26] And I, I hope it does because it kind of takes the wind out of his sails as a power broker

[00:29:34] in California, like San Diego Republican politics.

[00:29:38] And Zach, you and I know probably better than anyone being involved in local politics down here.

[00:29:43] Like he's, he's slipped a little bit.

[00:29:45] He's not as influential.

[00:29:46] He's kind of like on his last leg.

[00:29:48] So if he loses this, he probably won't be doing much of anything other than trying to scam people

[00:29:55] with reform California.

[00:29:57] So.

[00:29:57] In revenge.

[00:29:59] In revenge.

[00:30:00] There's no doubt.

[00:30:00] And there's no doubt he's coming after those of us that have criticized him after this is said and done.

[00:30:04] So that's another thing to look out for is how he responds to his critics.

[00:30:08] I mean, I just got blocked by him on, on X.

[00:30:10] He's been following me for years.

[00:30:12] I haven't followed him, but he's been following me for years on X, Twitter, whatever.

[00:30:16] And now as of like yesterday night, he blocked me.

[00:30:20] We're getting close to the election and we want to make sure to preserve.

[00:30:22] Carl Block party right here.

[00:30:24] It is.

[00:30:25] Yeah.

[00:30:25] Join the club.

[00:30:27] I'm surprised I took this long, but it's funny because it's the same.

[00:30:31] I mean, this is the same playbook that Democrats use.

[00:30:36] It's the same.

[00:30:37] We're getting close to the game time.

[00:30:39] Let me control the facade as hard and heavy handed as I can so that new, new eyes coming

[00:30:45] onto my page aren't going to be directed to somebody who's calling out his BS or isn't

[00:30:51] going to get intrigued by a comment in the set in the comments that are, you know, what

[00:30:56] about my, I'm never donating my money to you because you're not doing anything with it,

[00:31:00] you know, or so it makes sense why he's on a blockade, if you will.

[00:31:05] It's a grifless playbook.

[00:31:07] It is.

[00:31:08] It's, it's modeled after a lot of people, but it's a recognizable playbook.

[00:31:16] So, uh, yeah.

[00:31:17] All right.

[00:31:18] That that's my prediction.

[00:31:19] I think, unfortunately, I think the machine of DeMaio probably beats out Andrew Hayes,

[00:31:25] although he's a, he's a great candidate and hopefully he doesn't give up after this, this

[00:31:29] election.

[00:31:30] Maybe he shocks the world.

[00:31:32] I hope, hope he does.

[00:31:34] But I think DeMaio based on the, the primary, the votes that came pouring in for Carl DeMaio

[00:31:41] right off the bat, give me the belief that like, yeah, he's, he's, he's got a lot of support.

[00:31:48] He's got a lot of groundswell support and he's got a lot of name recognition.

[00:31:50] So that does put him over the top.

[00:31:54] So what are your guys' predictions?

[00:31:58] Well, I, because of his name recognition and just who he has been in San Diego for so

[00:32:04] long, I feel like it will be him.

[00:32:06] And I'm honestly praying it won't be because of everything I know about Carl.

[00:32:10] He is one of the worst possible people we could have.

[00:32:14] And so like, if you're hearing this and you live in that district and haven't voted yet,

[00:32:18] oh my gosh, do your research.

[00:32:23] Zach?

[00:32:26] You know, the way I try to look at this, and again, it speaks to like, hey, maybe your

[00:32:32] next door neighbor that the Democrat isn't an evil scumbag that wants to destroy your quality

[00:32:37] of life.

[00:32:38] Maybe they're just a regular person that just tends to loosely follow Democrat policies and

[00:32:43] kind of goes about it.

[00:32:45] So having said that, I don't think all Democrats are crazy.

[00:32:49] I think much of this race will potentially, could potentially come down to the way the

[00:32:57] Democrat vote, the way Democrats involve themselves in this election.

[00:33:02] If they involve themselves in this election to see preventing Carl from making their life

[00:33:08] worse, then they're incentivized to vote against him.

[00:33:12] And I think also going along the lines of if Andrew is positioned to better not marginalize

[00:33:21] Democrats, once again, Democrats are incentivized to vote for Andrew.

[00:33:27] So, you know, and of course, Carl tries to use this as a dig, right, on Andrew, because it will

[00:33:35] most likely take Democrats supporting Andrew to get Andrew across the finish line.

[00:33:40] But again, like that's what makes Andrew a more level headed leader than Carl is because he

[00:33:49] will stand ground, but also work with coalitions that can find that synergy.

[00:33:56] Whereas like Carl wants to hit the hard line stuff and make sure that it's all sensationalism.

[00:34:02] So I think it'll come down to the Democrats in this election.

[00:34:06] And I think because of the fear of Carl, it could push him over.

[00:34:14] My only, I guess, reservation is that North County piece of the district that I think Carl

[00:34:23] has lasted a lot more for a longer time than East County.

[00:34:27] So I don't know, I actually don't know if there's more people living in the northern part

[00:34:31] of the district than the southern part of the district.

[00:34:33] That'd be a curious data kind of understanding because I think that could also shift because

[00:34:39] Andrew's got a pretty good, I would say pretty good lock on like Santee and Lakeside and, you

[00:34:48] know, that area.

[00:34:49] But when you get into the North County area, I don't really know.

[00:34:54] So it's tough.

[00:35:02] It's tough because I'm thinking like you just said, we won't, we won't all do it.

[00:35:06] Well, you, like you said, the primary, the primary, I mean, the primary results are sort

[00:35:10] of like, it's concerning because it really looks like he's got a pretty large, you know, he

[00:35:17] got a lot of votes on that.

[00:35:18] Not that people who lead in the primary don't always lose, you know, have never lost in the

[00:35:23] general.

[00:35:23] That happens.

[00:35:24] But I, man, this is tough.

[00:35:31] I think Carl probably will win by a very, again, a very small margin.

[00:35:37] But hopefully Democrats understand not just the threat of Carl, but just the, the

[00:35:48] dysfunctionality of Carl and get excited and make sure to vote against him.

[00:35:53] But yeah, it's, it's a tough one.

[00:35:58] Well, you can tell we're being honest because we're not just picking our favorites.

[00:36:02] So we're being realistic.

[00:36:04] I'm trying.

[00:36:05] All right.

[00:36:06] Let's move to some statewide stuff.

[00:36:09] Let's move on to some propositions.

[00:36:11] Prop 36.

[00:36:12] The big one that is going to do a lot of reforming of Prop 47.

[00:36:16] The last poll showed, I think close to 70% of Californians polled support passing this.

[00:36:26] Gavin Newsom hates it for some reason.

[00:36:31] My theory has always been that politicians never like to admit that they're wrong.

[00:36:36] So the idea of the people kind of rebuking what has been put in place that you've supported

[00:36:42] kind of hurts his ego because he's trying to do all these like little reforms that don't

[00:36:47] really add to anything.

[00:36:50] But Prop 36 is basically, looks like it's going to head for a landslide.

[00:36:54] What do you guys think?

[00:36:56] I think so.

[00:36:57] Yeah.

[00:36:57] I think yes, it'll pass.

[00:36:59] Okay.

[00:37:00] I think it's one of those props that basically highlight the reality on the ground.

[00:37:05] And I think a lot of people have a hard time ignoring it.

[00:37:08] So it's just one of those like, yeah, something needs to be done.

[00:37:11] Your leaders are lying.

[00:37:12] It's clear.

[00:37:13] Like, let's just do this.

[00:37:15] So yeah, I think a landslide on that one.

[00:37:18] And I think it's also for a lot of Democrats, it's kind of a tectonic shift in politics here

[00:37:25] in California, because previously it was a lot of people who were, you know, a lot of

[00:37:30] Democrats are very lenient on crime and they pushed all these progressive policies and

[00:37:35] we'll get into a race that involves these sort of policies.

[00:37:38] But now it's forcing a lot of Democrats to kind of reevaluate like where they stand on

[00:37:43] crime.

[00:37:44] And now they have to be like, now they got to be tough on crime.

[00:37:47] When previously, like 10 years ago, Democrats were not tough on crime here in California.

[00:37:53] So it's definitely the will of the people is showing them like, hey, do something about

[00:37:58] crime.

[00:37:59] Because who's been making a big stink about it?

[00:38:01] Republicans.

[00:38:02] And that's a hard thing to try and grapple with.

[00:38:04] Like, crap, Republicans have been right here in California.

[00:38:07] How do we, you know, how do we fix it?

[00:38:10] Yeah.

[00:38:10] And I think maybe that's another point.

[00:38:12] It's an excellent point to say, like, Republicans have been saying we need to reform

[00:38:15] Prop 47 or repeal it for since it's been enacted.

[00:38:20] Yeah.

[00:38:21] Yeah.

[00:38:22] From the get go.

[00:38:22] For a decade now.

[00:38:23] From the get go.

[00:38:24] So the people agreeing with Republicans who have been steadfast on this for over a decade.

[00:38:30] Now, all of a sudden, like, they don't want people to agree with Republicans because

[00:38:37] that's not what they want here in California.

[00:38:39] Prop 33 is rent control.

[00:38:43] I think I had a poll, but let me know your thoughts.

[00:38:47] This is the one that...

[00:38:48] I think that was going to pass.

[00:38:50] I sent an article.

[00:38:51] People, that's apparently receiving the most funding in favor of Prop 33.

[00:38:57] And people seem to be really upset about it.

[00:39:02] Yeah.

[00:39:02] Against, well, actually, against is they've raised 92 million.

[00:39:07] And four, they've raised 50 million.

[00:39:10] And then...

[00:39:11] Well, okay.

[00:39:11] I didn't realize it was...

[00:39:12] Sorry.

[00:39:13] I must have read it wrong.

[00:39:14] Because once again, I just sent you an article and didn't read it.

[00:39:17] That's what I do now.

[00:39:19] This looks interesting.

[00:39:20] Read it and find it.

[00:39:21] Read it and you tell me.

[00:39:22] I'm going to dig it out.

[00:39:24] You tell me live on the show.

[00:39:25] Of polling data as of October 15th, it looks like 54% no, 42% yes, 4% undecided.

[00:39:36] So losing by more than 10 points.

[00:39:39] Interesting.

[00:39:40] But that's not to say, you know, people are polled on something that's different than when

[00:39:46] they actually sit down and read their ballot.

[00:39:49] And these are confusing propositions.

[00:39:51] So I imagine there's a lot of people who probably look at this and go, hey, the rent is too damn

[00:39:55] high.

[00:39:56] Why don't we...

[00:39:57] You know, rent control sounds great.

[00:39:59] I think it will probably lose, but it'll be closer than these polls are showing.

[00:40:06] They have been spending a ton of money.

[00:40:07] I see ads against Prop 33 all the time.

[00:40:11] I'm wondering if most people are really even paying attention to these though.

[00:40:14] Like I think a lot of people are paying attention to 36, especially because some high

[00:40:18] profile Democrats have spoken up in favor of 36.

[00:40:22] But then often these other props will pass because no one's really paying attention and

[00:40:27] they just kind of show up and they're like, especially if they look at who's for it and

[00:40:30] they're like, oh, I like that group.

[00:40:32] I know that group.

[00:40:33] I know that name.

[00:40:34] And they're just like, okay, yes.

[00:40:38] That's my very scientific theory on these props.

[00:40:44] Okay.

[00:40:45] Okay.

[00:40:45] Yeah.

[00:40:46] Zach, feelings on whether...

[00:40:48] What's your prediction on Prop 33?

[00:40:55] You know, I think like you said, and this one stood out to me that the wording can be confusing

[00:41:00] on what action is being done.

[00:41:02] Are you removing something or are you giving authority over something?

[00:41:11] Right.

[00:41:11] Which is like being able to have more, I guess, discretion.

[00:41:18] Or...

[00:41:21] But I also, like Camille said, I think that's not a very popular, sexy prop.

[00:41:26] And I don't think there's going to be...

[00:41:28] I do think...

[00:41:30] I could see it just being yes.

[00:41:32] I just feel like a lot of people living in a Democrat majority state are going to just

[00:41:38] yes propositions.

[00:41:40] At least in the past, it seems like how a lot of them go unless there's active efforts to

[00:41:44] oppose.

[00:41:45] So I feel like this is going to be one of those that just passes, but for no significant reason.

[00:41:52] Right.

[00:41:53] If that makes sense.

[00:41:54] Yeah.

[00:41:54] People will be like, didn't we pass rent control?

[00:41:56] Why is my rent still too damn high?

[00:41:58] And it's like, you should have read the proposition.

[00:42:01] Okay.

[00:42:02] Moving on to Los Angeles district attorney race between Gascon and Nathan Hockman.

[00:42:10] And I think we talked about it last week.

[00:42:13] It has...

[00:42:14] Has Gascon down by 30 points in the polling?

[00:42:17] So...

[00:42:20] I mean, I think Hockman's going to beat him.

[00:42:21] I think Gascon's done.

[00:42:23] I think he's completely unpopular.

[00:42:25] For all the reasons, I'm just going to refer to last week's episode regarding George Gascon

[00:42:30] and how unpopular he is, how much he just...

[00:42:34] He's like the embodiment of the antithesis of Prop 36.

[00:42:39] This is why Prop 36 is winning by so much, and this is why George Gascon is losing by

[00:42:45] so much, just because crime is such a big issue.

[00:42:48] And Californians are fed up with it in terms of how bad it's gotten, how lenient they've

[00:42:53] gotten.

[00:42:53] So I think he likely goes down in flames.

[00:42:57] And Pamela Price also is facing a recall up in Alameda County.

[00:43:03] I have no idea what the polling is on her, but I imagine she probably gets recalled too.

[00:43:08] I think there's been a huge push to get rid of progressive district attorneys here in

[00:43:12] California.

[00:43:13] So maybe we are turning a corner here in California.

[00:43:17] Who knows?

[00:43:18] Fingers crossed.

[00:43:19] Thoughts?

[00:43:20] Predictions?

[00:43:23] Yeah, I haven't followed the LA, that race super closely, but I do know who Gascon or whatever

[00:43:30] his name is.

[00:43:31] And I know he's not liked and I know he's responsible for being soft on crime.

[00:43:37] Like these are just like basic kind of, you know, what I hear on the street without really

[00:43:43] knowing the detail of it.

[00:43:44] So just the fact that, and I'm pretty politically savvy.

[00:43:47] So just the fact that I know he's not popular, I could see him losing.

[00:43:53] Because like you said, I think he's attached directly to the increase in crime and this

[00:43:58] type of flimsy, progressive district attorney law soft on crime style.

[00:44:05] So.

[00:44:06] I think Hawken wins by a lot.

[00:44:09] Yeah.

[00:44:10] I think we'll know pretty quickly who's going to win that.

[00:44:13] And speaking of a race, we'll know pretty quickly, probably within a minute of the poll

[00:44:17] closing.

[00:44:19] Schiff versus Garvey for Senate.

[00:44:23] I'm not voting for Schiff, but Schiff will take this.

[00:44:27] Yeah, I don't think it'll be a close race.

[00:44:31] Honestly, I haven't even like once Garvey won the primary, it was like, okay, like I haven't

[00:44:36] seen him do anything.

[00:44:37] I haven't seen him really go out and.

[00:44:39] Well, come on, you watched a few debates with him.

[00:44:44] I think I watched one of the primary debates.

[00:44:47] And then after that, I didn't really.

[00:44:49] Or did we watch some of it?

[00:44:51] We watched Wig on Gear.

[00:44:52] But we did.

[00:44:53] Okay.

[00:44:54] Did.

[00:44:56] Yeah.

[00:44:56] I'm sure Zach, you're in the same way.

[00:44:59] Yeah.

[00:45:00] So I hate to be superficial about, you know, when it comes to politics, but there's true

[00:45:06] power and flair in being energized in your messaging.

[00:45:14] And I think if you truly lack that.

[00:45:18] You're looked over faster than a freaking, you know, you put it, whatever it.

[00:45:24] So to me, it's like, I don't think this campaign honestly has been run with the type of energy

[00:45:30] required to win a U S Senate seat in, in California, especially going up.

[00:45:36] Yeah.

[00:45:36] Yeah.

[00:45:37] And, and again, we're talk about name recognition.

[00:45:41] Adam shift is going, you know, that that's a pretty large name, even if he's despised by

[00:45:48] a lot of Democrats that do not, you know, like the Katie Porter is of the party.

[00:45:55] But it's, it's, I mean, when, when push comes to shove, they're going to, it's going to be

[00:46:01] a heavy hand consolidation behind shift from Democrats.

[00:46:05] So I see it being pretty, probably a pretty large victory.

[00:46:11] Yeah.

[00:46:11] Maybe, maybe Garvey gets a tiny bump if the Dodgers pull it out tonight.

[00:46:16] Maybe all the Dodgers fans.

[00:46:18] I'm going to advocate for though.

[00:46:20] If I'm being honest.

[00:46:22] No, nobody in San Diego is advocating for the Dodgers to win, but also I'm conflicted

[00:46:26] as a East coast fan of the Mets and watching the Yankees lose is always fun.

[00:46:31] But anyway, I'm going to grab a book while you guys talk baseball.

[00:46:36] Nope.

[00:46:36] Nope.

[00:46:36] We're done with baseball.

[00:46:38] All right.

[00:46:39] Now on to the big kahuna.

[00:46:41] Everyone ready?

[00:46:42] This is it.

[00:46:42] This is the big finale that everyone's probably waiting to hear what we have to say.

[00:46:48] Drum roll.

[00:46:50] Please.

[00:46:50] You have a wrong account deck.

[00:46:52] Where is it?

[00:46:53] That's on.

[00:46:54] Hold on.

[00:46:56] Hey.

[00:46:57] On to the presidential election.

[00:46:59] That's what everybody really cares about anyway, right?

[00:47:02] Although I am wearing my local elections matter t-shirt, which you can get in our store at

[00:47:08] California underground dot live.

[00:47:09] I put the link in both the chats on YouTube and rumble because local elections do matter.

[00:47:14] All right.

[00:47:14] All right.

[00:47:15] Big honking predictions about the presidential.

[00:47:19] Well, first off, before we go into who's going to win and by how much.

[00:47:25] I want to entertain just a little bit.

[00:47:27] I don't want to entertain the kooky, crazy conspiracy theories.

[00:47:31] Why not?

[00:47:32] I'll throw this out there.

[00:47:34] Yes.

[00:47:35] Will we know who the next president is on the night of November 5th?

[00:47:42] Let's start there.

[00:47:47] No.

[00:47:48] Okay.

[00:47:48] So both are no.

[00:47:50] Well, when is the last time that we did know who the president was on election night?

[00:47:58] Well, technically 2016.

[00:48:00] I mean, it was the next morning that we knew Trump had won.

[00:48:06] I'm saying like, will we know.

[00:48:09] Within 24 hours.

[00:48:11] Within 24 hours of polls closing across the country.

[00:48:14] Will we know who the president of the United States is or will it drag on for weeks?

[00:48:20] It's going to drag on.

[00:48:22] Only if it's on the inside.

[00:48:22] Well, now I'm going to say my prediction because I don't think it's going to be a landslide win.

[00:48:30] Okay.

[00:48:31] And so I think it's going to be close.

[00:48:35] Therefore, I don't think that we will know for who knows how long.

[00:48:41] So I think this election poses a very different dynamic in the way people are voting.

[00:48:47] So in the past, it's especially from like the Republican side, it's been a ultra emphasis on vote on election day.

[00:48:58] One day.

[00:48:59] One day.

[00:48:59] Yeah.

[00:48:59] One day.

[00:49:00] One day.

[00:49:00] You know, get in there on the day.

[00:49:02] Wipe your calendar.

[00:49:04] Do it then.

[00:49:05] Boom.

[00:49:05] Bada bing.

[00:49:05] Bada boom.

[00:49:07] As of recently, though, there has been sort of a, you know, not just for lack of better phrase, you can't beat them, join them when it comes to vote early, vote now, vote by mail, vote quickly, get it done, get it finished, get it over.

[00:49:22] However, that I think a lot of Republicans have taken, have taken initiative in doing that in a larger way this cycle.

[00:49:30] And I think that alone can throw a will, I think I predict will throw a curveball in those first tallied votes because it's not going to be the traditional sense of, you know, these are all just Democrats coming in.

[00:49:44] Republicans will come in later, whatever.

[00:49:47] I think Republicans will have a great showing in the beginning and could have an even better because there's still going to be people that are like, no, we're voting on the day of, which I, of course.

[00:49:55] But I do think that with the mail-in votes being emphasized more, that it's going to throw those early predictions off.

[00:50:06] But that's just kind of, I guess, my take on it.

[00:50:10] Yeah, it's been interesting.

[00:50:12] Because there's people that I knew.

[00:50:12] Yeah, sorry, go ahead.

[00:50:13] No, no, go ahead.

[00:50:14] Finish.

[00:50:14] I was just going to say, because there's people I knew that, again, religiously voted on the day of, but this year voted like a week ago and did it because, you know, what, when I asked them why they voted early, it was because what.

[00:50:29] They liked the idea of their vote getting in and that data being collected.

[00:50:34] And so that there's more efforts spent and more attention on those who have not voted yet.

[00:50:39] And I think that's a smart way to look at getting things, you know, getting it over with.

[00:50:45] So, yeah, I think that throws in curveball for me.

[00:50:50] Yeah, it is amazing seeing how the past couple cycles was vote on the day.

[00:50:57] It was, that was the, if you're on the right, it was you vote on the day.

[00:51:01] You're a bad conservative.

[00:51:02] If you, if you vote earlier, you drop off your ballot.

[00:51:05] Now, like early voting has become like the thing.

[00:51:09] Like now it's get out there and vote, vote early.

[00:51:12] We need to know who you are.

[00:51:14] Make a real.

[00:51:16] Yeah.

[00:51:16] Yeah.

[00:51:17] You know, definitely take selfies of yourself voting.

[00:51:20] So everyone knows that you voted.

[00:51:22] I did.

[00:51:23] You made a selfie.

[00:51:24] I did.

[00:51:25] I did.

[00:51:25] I did a boomerang dropping in the ballot.

[00:51:29] You didn't do it like actually filling it out.

[00:51:34] But yeah, it is interesting to see how Republicans have changed their tune on this, especially here in California, where there is a lot more ample opportunity to vote early to drop off your ballot.

[00:51:48] Everybody.

[00:51:48] Right.

[00:51:49] Yeah.

[00:51:49] It's kind of just become this like, you know what?

[00:51:52] Like you said, can't beat them.

[00:51:53] Join them.

[00:51:54] Like there's no reason to wait until election day and leave one day.

[00:51:58] Like if you can get it done, just get it done.

[00:52:00] And I wonder if it's also, and maybe this could be a double-edged sword with the presidential election right now in terms of we are seeing like early voting numbers have been better for Republicans than in past years.

[00:52:18] So like they're looking at early voting and saying, wow, look at all the early voting by Republicans.

[00:52:22] But I wonder if that is also just them being displaced to early voting as opposed to people showing up.

[00:52:30] If the effort is to get people to do early voting, then maybe it's just we've moved those on-the-day voters to early voters and the numbers still pan out the same.

[00:52:45] I hope not, but that's a good point.

[00:52:48] Yeah.

[00:52:48] Yeah.

[00:52:48] That is something that I thought about.

[00:52:49] I was like, well, these are great numbers, but you know, there's only at the end of the day.

[00:52:53] Do they say 10 years like that?

[00:52:55] Could that be it?

[00:52:56] Yeah.

[00:52:56] Like they all voted.

[00:52:58] Yeah.

[00:52:59] And then on election day, like you're looking for votes and you go, well, where are all the votes?

[00:53:03] And they're like, well, they came in early and these are all the votes you got.

[00:53:06] But yeah, I don't think that's going to make a it might make a little bit of a difference.

[00:53:12] I think there's a good amount of Republicans who still vote on the day.

[00:53:15] They still wait for the day of.

[00:53:17] Oh, yeah.

[00:53:18] But I think if you look at how it's comparing to Democratic early votes and how it's kind of thwarting Democratic early votes, that does maybe give you a better indicator of the enthusiasm of people voting early.

[00:53:32] So and you're right in terms of data, there's only so many Republican votes and Democrat votes out there.

[00:53:38] So if there's a lot of early votes, that leaves less for get out the vote on the day of.

[00:53:45] So I will say there's been more Republican registrations in the state of California, like by a tenfold to Democrats.

[00:53:52] So there could be new voters kind of hitting hidden in this equation that can come out heavy.

[00:54:01] But yeah, it's one of those.

[00:54:03] That's a really good point.

[00:54:05] Just just displacing the numbers from over here to over here and then just like, yeah.

[00:54:11] Well, to your point, Zach, they are saying that California is likely going to be the state that decides who wins Congress.

[00:54:22] Yeah.

[00:54:22] Yeah, that's you.

[00:54:24] I think that's friggin you.

[00:54:25] Yeah.

[00:54:26] Yeah.

[00:54:26] So, I mean, it all comes down to us here in California.

[00:54:30] We do have a role to play in the House.

[00:54:34] So we'll see.

[00:54:35] Yeah, I think it was like the last I said was like 100,000 or like 140,000 new registered Republicans in California.

[00:54:43] That's a huge swing of voters here in California.

[00:54:46] May not seem like a lot for 40 million, but it makes a difference in close races.

[00:54:52] It makes a difference in local elections.

[00:54:56] So I might as well just go ahead and start the ball rolling and show you because I was playing around at work today.

[00:55:05] I mean, on my free time, I was playing around at work.

[00:55:08] I was working really hard today.

[00:55:09] And I'll show you my prediction of the map.

[00:55:12] And then maybe we can discuss that.

[00:55:16] This is my prediction of how election night is going to go.

[00:55:23] If you can see that.

[00:55:24] Do you need me to zoom in?

[00:55:26] I could see it.

[00:55:29] I can zoom in a little bit more.

[00:55:37] Did I ruin it?

[00:55:38] I ruined it.

[00:55:39] I screwed it up.

[00:55:40] There we go.

[00:55:41] Okay.

[00:55:44] That is my prediction.

[00:55:46] For those of you who can't see or are listening on audio, that is my electoral map for next week.

[00:55:53] It currently has Trump winning 311 to 227.

[00:55:59] And maybe it's audacious.

[00:56:04] But I did compare this with real clear politics where the polling is right now, where he's in the lead, what his usual under polling is.

[00:56:15] So if he polls at a certain number, usually he polls it out by two or three points more, which would give him comfortable leads to win these states.

[00:56:24] I mean, like Florida and Texas are obviously going to go red.

[00:56:27] They made him toss ups on the default map.

[00:56:29] I don't know why.

[00:56:30] I think he wins Pennsylvania.

[00:56:33] And he's got to win Pennsylvania if he's going to make it to the White House.

[00:56:37] Probably loses Michigan.

[00:56:39] Wisconsin picks up.

[00:56:40] Ohio, definitely he's going to win.

[00:56:43] My bold and my biggest prediction, I think that that's going to shock people as he flips Nevada.

[00:56:49] That's what I was looking at.

[00:56:53] So thoughts, concerns, complaints?

[00:56:59] I would like to complain about your work ethic.

[00:57:02] Okay.

[00:57:02] Well, I'll give you the number of my boss and you can let him know that I was playing around with electoral maps.

[00:57:13] I feel like this map that you made, that you spent time on, I would not be smart enough to come up with anything like this.

[00:57:26] I have only recently come to the idea that I think Trump will win.

[00:57:34] I don't think it's going to be a landslide.

[00:57:36] I think it's going to be very close.

[00:57:37] But I do believe Trump is going to win.

[00:57:40] And I don't think that Kamala's 16 accents are winning anybody over.

[00:57:47] No.

[00:57:48] I agree that I do believe Trump is going to win.

[00:57:54] But I do believe it's going to be, like, very close.

[00:57:58] Like, coming down to literally a state that determines it.

[00:58:04] Or maybe two.

[00:58:06] Nevada is bold.

[00:58:08] I don't know like this.

[00:58:09] You know?

[00:58:10] Yeah.

[00:58:12] Because Nevada, that's bold because they have dumped, Democrats have dumped so much money, time, and resource into Nevada.

[00:58:22] And I don't know.

[00:58:27] I feel like I would just be shocked to see them lose that given how long they've spent headquartered in there.

[00:58:37] So my electoral map would be a lot closer.

[00:58:43] But still Trump winning.

[00:58:46] Okay.

[00:58:47] Fair enough.

[00:58:48] I didn't go as bold.

[00:58:52] Chance he might win the popular vote, too.

[00:58:55] I think he'll win the popular vote.

[00:58:56] I don't think.

[00:58:59] I don't think.

[00:59:00] I think the support for Kamala is cratering.

[00:59:06] Because there never really was any grassroots organic support for Kamala.

[00:59:10] No.

[00:59:11] I think there's a lot of people who support her because she's not Trump.

[00:59:17] Yes.

[00:59:18] But I don't think she, in the final weeks, has done a great job telling the American people, like, this is what I stand for.

[00:59:27] These are my policies.

[00:59:28] And this is what you're getting.

[00:59:29] And it really has devolved into Trump is Hitler.

[00:59:34] I'm not Trump.

[00:59:36] So vote for me.

[00:59:37] Like, if your closing argument is Trump is literally Hitler and that's all they have to go after.

[00:59:44] Like, I think she had a speech today and she talked about January 6th.

[00:59:47] And it's like, people can't afford to buy groceries to make dinner for their family.

[00:59:54] And you're over here talking about January 6th.

[00:59:56] People are like, they just, they don't care anymore.

[00:59:58] Like, I was noticing, like, the one constant of all the attack ads and stuff like that of Republicans is, like, the first thing out of their mouth is always abortion.

[01:00:10] And a lot of people are like...

[01:00:12] And she deflects to it all the time as well.

[01:00:14] Yeah.

[01:00:14] It's always the natural deflection.

[01:00:16] I didn't go as bold as my father, who believes that he thinks the election will be over next week when New Jersey flips red.

[01:00:28] We'll all know that it's over.

[01:00:31] Because I'm sure you're not following New Jersey politics.

[01:00:37] I don't blame you.

[01:00:39] But there was a race for governor a couple years ago, and it was very, very close.

[01:00:45] Like, the Republican governor was winning most of the race until, you know, Murphy found all these votes, like in Camden or Philadelphia, like that Camden, Philadelphia area.

[01:00:57] So that gave people the belief, like, there are a lot of Republicans in New Jersey.

[01:01:00] And I'm not saying it's going to happen, but that's my dad's bold prediction is that Trump will flip New Jersey, and then they'll know it's over.

[01:01:08] How many votes does New Jersey give?

[01:01:09] 14.

[01:01:12] That's, you know, there's a lot of people in New Jersey.

[01:01:14] So, you know, you flip New Jersey.

[01:01:19] That's a big deal.

[01:01:20] You get New Jersey and Pennsylvania next to each other.

[01:01:23] So.

[01:01:25] So, yeah, that's my prediction.

[01:01:28] I'm different than you guys.

[01:01:29] I actually think.

[01:01:32] I think it's going to be such a blowout.

[01:01:35] That we'll know next week.

[01:01:38] I think we'll the data will be there to show that Kamala.

[01:01:41] She may not concede on November 5th.

[01:01:45] She may not concede November 6th.

[01:01:47] But I think the data will be there to show that Trump has won handedly and we'll know pretty quickly.

[01:01:54] Like people will know that Trump has won.

[01:01:57] So.

[01:01:57] I could be completely wrong.

[01:02:01] But.

[01:02:03] I mean, I think based on the on the pure, like energy and enthusiasm and like what what seems to be getting people going.

[01:02:12] It doesn't seem like Kamala has garnered a new like new voters.

[01:02:17] And I can't say that for the Trump side of things this time around, being that I am for this time a Trump voter.

[01:02:26] This is my first time voting for Trump.

[01:02:27] And so I think there are there are a lot of people that this is their first time.

[01:02:33] Going with Trump because it's just enough is enough.

[01:02:36] We've seen some we've seen such a destructive pendulum swing and in such a different direction that it almost seems the only natural protest to that is to start to swing it back and hope that it doesn't match the other side even harder.

[01:02:51] But that's kind of how I've looked at.

[01:02:56] Yeah.

[01:02:57] Me voting here is that it's.

[01:03:02] Yeah, there's things that I think Trump can and will do that will, you know, improve the economy and our place in the world.

[01:03:08] But it also.

[01:03:11] For me, at least, and I think a lot of others is that what's been happening and what's been going and how Mala has not different, like differentiated herself from Biden, which is just four more years of Biden.

[01:03:23] I don't think that's a message that works with people.

[01:03:26] And I think that's going to change a lot of voting blocks that once maybe were not involved, third party or Democrat deciding to do something different because they're out there.

[01:03:41] Believe it or not, there are Democrats out there that are not voting for Kamala.

[01:03:44] And it doesn't necessarily mean they're voting for Trump, but them not being in the equation, I think, is a big part of that enthusiasm piece that she misses.

[01:03:54] And that, I think, opens the door for quite a different result.

[01:03:59] Right.

[01:04:00] And I think if you just look at like the cross sections of the people that Kamala is just not winning over, she's not made the inroads with the Latino community.

[01:04:11] She's not made inroads with black voters, specifically black men.

[01:04:17] Like the youth vote is switching.

[01:04:20] The joy coming in the morning, isn't it?

[01:04:22] No, no.

[01:04:23] Doing the joy coming in the morning is not working.

[01:04:26] Yeah, I think the and these are like solid.

[01:04:28] If you're going to win as a Democrat in the United States, those are blocks of voters.

[01:04:32] You have to shore up and get those numbers up.

[01:04:36] And if Trump is chipping away at him, you know, what did I see?

[01:04:40] It was like support for Trump amongst Latino voters is 49 percent, which they thought it was a big deal.

[01:04:51] That was that was something I saw on Fox News was like 49 percent Latino voters support for Trump.

[01:04:57] And I was like, if that's true.

[01:05:01] That puts a lot of states, obviously, in play like Nevada or New Mexico.

[01:05:09] When Bush won and it was like he cracked 15 percent, they were like, oh, my gosh, he's like he's so popular with the Latino community.

[01:05:17] That's so crazy.

[01:05:19] They were patting themselves on the back.

[01:05:21] Times have definitely changed.

[01:05:22] So that's my prediction.

[01:05:24] I think he wins probably breaks 300 electoral votes, probably could win the popular vote.

[01:05:30] And I think we'll know on November 5th or soon thereafter.

[01:05:34] We have the benefit of being on the West Coast.

[01:05:36] So we get more time on November 5th to analyze this.

[01:05:40] People on the East Coast are probably, you know, staying up until one or two in the morning to watch this.

[01:05:46] But yeah, that's my prediction.

[01:05:49] Any other thoughts before we close out the show?

[01:05:52] Any other final predictions?

[01:05:55] I think so.

[01:05:56] No, I think there'll be some there'll be some hoorahs and oh no's.

[01:06:02] And it'll be like many elections.

[01:06:04] There'll be there'll be awesome victories and there'll be some heartbreakers.

[01:06:08] But in general, in conclusion, I think Republicans are successfully moving the needle in ways that haven't been done here in decades.

[01:06:17] And I think that's an exciting kind of forward vision for Republicans moving into politics or continuing.

[01:06:26] So I do think there's a real quick question on that.

[01:06:29] Do you guys think we'll flip some assembly seats in California?

[01:06:33] Yeah, I think there's a chance we flip some and chip away.

[01:06:38] I do too.

[01:06:39] And I and one of the reasons we didn't necessarily touch upon, it's Assembly 77.

[01:06:43] And it's by Tasha.

[01:06:47] Borner.

[01:06:48] I want to be I want to try hard to say.

[01:06:51] Yes.

[01:06:52] Borner.

[01:06:53] She is the state assembly's most far left progressive legislator.

[01:06:59] Legislator.

[01:07:00] Like the most like there's a whole scale and she is like way on the far, far left.

[01:07:07] The most.

[01:07:08] And I think.

[01:07:11] Who's her opponent?

[01:07:13] James Brown.

[01:07:14] OK.

[01:07:15] He's a first time candidate.

[01:07:17] Young guy.

[01:07:17] You know, is is.

[01:07:20] We don't want to.

[01:07:20] I want to get deep into that, but it.

[01:07:22] It.

[01:07:23] I think.

[01:07:25] She's vulnerable in that seat if there's good awareness, because there's that used to

[01:07:28] be sort of the Republican district back when like Issa was was a congressman in that area.

[01:07:35] It was Republicans had parts of the coast that I think slipped away.

[01:07:42] But.

[01:07:44] There's a lot.

[01:07:45] I guess it's for me.

[01:07:46] I have to balance the realism with my enthusiasm and my hope because I got to keep fighting

[01:07:52] and keep advocating and keep going and be be encouraged to to speak on these things.

[01:07:58] But also, you know, the reality is we live in a super dark majority.

[01:08:05] Districts in many cases, and that can be an uphill battle, but there is the state, though,

[01:08:10] is different.

[01:08:10] I know parts of northern California are a lot more conservative.

[01:08:14] And.

[01:08:15] I'm sure there could be some openings, too.

[01:08:19] Yeah.

[01:08:20] Slowly but surely.

[01:08:22] Progress to purple, as we like to say.

[01:08:25] Yep.

[01:08:25] Oh, I guess.

[01:08:26] Oh, purple.

[01:08:29] Cool.

[01:08:30] Well, hopefully we're proven right.

[01:08:33] Well, actually, hopefully we're not proven right on a lot of it because we pick some people

[01:08:36] we didn't like to win.

[01:08:38] Yeah.

[01:08:38] Maybe we're maybe we don't want to be proven right on everything.

[01:08:41] Maybe we want to be proven wrong.

[01:08:43] Yeah.

[01:08:44] Love to be wrong on some of these races.

[01:08:45] Exactly.

[01:08:46] I guess we'll have to see after next week.

[01:08:49] But thank you, everyone, for tuning in.

[01:08:51] As always, make sure you like, share, subscribe.

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[01:09:11] be interested.

[01:09:11] And with that, we'll see you on the next one.

[01:09:14] Later.

[01:09:27] Thank you for listening to another episode of California Underground.

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