Prop 40 Says It Raises $100 Billion. A Stanford Economist Says California Loses Money.
California UndergroundJuly 07, 202600:00:00

Prop 40 Says It Raises $100 Billion. A Stanford Economist Says California Loses Money.

California's proposed billionaire tax says it will raise $100 billion for healthcare, food assistance, and education. New research out of Stanford's Hoover Institution puts the real number closer to $40 billion — and argues the state could lose money overall once you factor in billionaires who've already left. Tonight, Phil sits down with Hoover Institution research fellow Benjamin Robert Jaros, co-author of that study, to walk through the math behind Proposition 40 — the mechanics of the tax, the migration numbers behind the dueling estimates, and what it actually means for California voters this November.

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📌 Sources:
Hoover Institution — study summary: https://www.hoover.org/press/californias-proposed-billionaire-tax-will-cost-state-estimated-25-billion-hoover-study-finds
SSRN — full Jaros/Rauh paper: https://ssrn.com/abstract=6340778
Ballotpedia — California Proposition 40 overview: https://ballotpedia.org/California_Proposition_40,_One-Time_Wealth_Tax_for_State-Funded_Healthcare,_Education,_and_Food_Assistance_Programs_Initiative_(2026)
CalMatters — Prop 40/41/42 as competing measures: https://calmatters.org/commentary/2026/07/ballot-measure-conflicts-billionaire-tax/
SEIU-UHW — the case for the measure: https://www.seiu-uhw.org/ca-billionaire-tax-act/

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california underground, California billionaire tax, billionaire tax, wealth tax, California Proposition 40,
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